Thermal tolerance limits as indicators of current and future intertidal zonation patterns in a diverse mussel guild
Climate change has driven shifts in species distributions along latitudinal and elevational gradients, and such shifts are likely to continue as warming accelerates. However, little is known about the response of strongly interacting species, including whether multiple, interacting species are likely to shift concordantly or whether climate change will promote community disassembly. In rocky shore ecosystems, mussels are dominant foundation species that provide habitat and increase diversity of associated species. The New Zealand mussel guild is uniquely diverse as four species can be found within 1 m2 of shoreline. We integrated comparative ecophysiology and population ecology to evaluate whether air temperature sets elevational range limits and to quantify mussels’ warming tolerances. Air temperature appears to set upper intertidal limits across mid-intertidal species, based on findings that (1) lethal thermal limits coincided with temperatures experienced at upper tide-height limits, (2) species with higher thermal tolerances occurred higher on shore, and (3) lethal tolerances were highest at our warmest site. Based on predicted body temperatures in year 2100, mid-elevation habitat-forming mussels are likely to experience an increase in the frequency of thermal events causing 50% mortality at their upper elevation limit. Such events are predicted to occur 3.0–4.4 times more frequently in 2100 than present at a warmer site and to increase from 0 to 0.4/0.1 days per year for Perna/Aulacomya, but not Mytilus, at a cooler site. These results indicate that the mussel species’ ranges are all likely to contract at warmer sites in the future, decreasing habitat for associated organisms.
We particularly thank M. Bracken and A. Gannett for collaborating on the 2015 fieldwork and D. Schiel and members of MERG at University of Canterbury for facilitating this New Zealand-based research. We thank H. Frenzel for technological help and M. Bracken, M. Foley, M. Peich, D. Wethey, and Sorte Lab members for additional assistance and feedback. This is CSUN Marine Biology Contribution #280.
This work was supported by start-up funds from the University of California, Irvine to CS, an Erskine Fellowship from University of Canterbury to M. Bracken, and a UCI GAANN travel grant to LP.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
All authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
All applicable international, national, and/or institutional guidelines for the care and use of animals were followed.
Data and code for temperature modeling and projected frequency of lethal temperature events are available on GitHub at https://github.com/kallisons/NZMusselTemperatures and https://github.com/njsilbiger/NZMussels, respectively. Additional data (mussel abundances, maximum tide heights, and thermal tolerances) are available in Online Resource 2.
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