Assessing the effects of climate change on the distribution of pulmonate freshwater snail biodiversity
- 865 Downloads
Global warming is expected to profoundly change the characteristics of freshwater habitats. Increasing evaporation, lower oxygen concentration due to increased water temperatures and changes in precipitation pattern are likely to affect the survival and reproduction of pulmonate freshwater gastropods. Our statistical niche modelling analysis suggests that for a great proportion of the North-West European genera, the range sizes were predicted to decrease by 2,080, even if unlimited dispersal was assumed. The forecasted warming in the cooler northern ranges predicted the emergence of new suitable areas, as well as drastically reduced available habitat in the southern part of the studied region. Phylogenetic signal was inferred for one dimension of the climatic niche. Independent contrast analyses, taking into account the phylogenetic relationships between the taxa, showed a positive correlation between the genera’s climate niche width and the size of future suitable area. In summary, the results predict a profound faunal freshwater gastropod shift for Central Europe, either permitting the establishment of species currently living south of the studied region or permitting the proliferation of organisms relying on the same food resources, if dispersal abilities do not match the rate of climate change.
KeywordsRandom Forest Phylogenetic Signal Suitable Area Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Freshwater Snail
This research was performed at the University of Frankfurt and at the Biodiversity and Research Centre. We thank K. Kuhn, R. Kraus, H. Geupel and S. Trumic for technical assistance. C. Albrecht kindly provided samples. We thank also the curators R. Janssen, J. Ablett, T. Backeljau, Z. Fehér, K. Edlinger and late M. Gosteli for access to museum collections. L. Sonesten and J. Økland helped with the use of existing databases. O. Tackenberg and I. Marzolff helped with the use of ArcView and with other GIS-related issues. The work received financial support within the AQUASHIFT DFG priority program (Grant MP390/4-1 to 4-3) and from the research funding programme “LOEWE—Landes-Offensive zur Entwicklung Wissenschaftlich-ökonomischer Exzellenz” of Hesse’s Ministry of Higher Education, Research, and the Arts.
- Blomberg SP, Garland T, Ives AR (2003) Testing for phylogenetic signal in comparative data: behavioral traits are more labile. Evolution 57:717–745Google Scholar
- Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudik M, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hijmans RJ, Huettmann F, Leathwick JR, Lehmann A, Li J, Lohmann G, Loiselle BA, Manion G, Moritz C, Nakamura M, Nakazawa Y, Overton MJ, Peterson AT, Phillips SJ, Richardson K, Scachetti-Pereira R, Schapire RE, Soberon J, Williams S, Wisz MS, Zimmermann NE (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29:129–151CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Gates DM (1993) Climate change and its biological consequences. Sinauer Associates, SunderlandGoogle Scholar
- Glöer P (2002) Mollusca I. Süßwassergastropoden Nord—und Mitteleuropas Bestimmungsschlüssel, Lebensweise, Verbreitung. ConchBooks, HackenheimGoogle Scholar
- Glöer P, Meier-Brook C (1998) Süßwassermollusken, HamburgGoogle Scholar
- Harvey PH, Pagel MD (1991) The comparative method in evolutionary biology. Oxford University Press, OxfordGoogle Scholar
- Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, Van Der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
- Martins EP (2004) COMPARE, version 4.6b. Computer programs for the statistical analysis of comparative data. Department of Biology, Indiana University, BloomingtonGoogle Scholar
- Økland J (1990) Lakes and snails: environment and gastropoda in 1500 Norwegian lakes, ponds and rivers. U.B.S./Dr. W. Backhuys, OegstgeestGoogle Scholar
- R Development Core Team (2008) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, ViennaGoogle Scholar
- van der Schalie H, Berry E (1973) The effects of temperature on growth and reproduction of aquatic snails. Sterkiana 50:1–92Google Scholar