Osteoporosis International

, Volume 20, Issue 7, pp 1131–1140 | Cite as

Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities of osteoporotic fracture in Swiss men and women

  • K. LippunerEmail author
  • H. Johansson
  • J. A. Kanis
  • R. Rizzoli
Original Article



Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures were determined by gender, age, and BMD values. Remaining lifetime probability at age 50 years was 20.2% in men and 51.3% in women and increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD. The study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX® model.


Switzerland belongs to high-risk countries for osteoporosis. Based on demographic projections, burden will still increase. We assessed remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures by gender, age and BMD in order to populate FRAX® algorithm for Switzerland.


Osteoporotic fracture incidence was determined from national epidemiological data for hospitalised fractured patients from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics in 2000 and results of a prospective Swiss cohort with almost 5,000 fractured patients in 2006. Validated BMD-associated fracture risk was used together with national death incidence and risk tables to determine remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year fracture probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic (hip, spine, distal radius, proximal humerus) fractures.


Major osteoporotic fractures incidence was 773 and 2,078 per 100,000 men and women aged 50 and older. Corresponding remaining lifetime probabilities at age 50 were 20.2% and 51.3%. Hospitalisation for clinical spine, distal radius, and proximal humerus fractures reached 25%, 30% and 50%, respectively. Absolute 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD and was higher in women than in men.


This study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX® model, a country at highest risk for osteoporotic fractures.


Absolute 10-year fracture probability FRAX® Hospitalisation rate Incidence Osteoporotic fractures Remaining lifetime probability 



We are grateful to Dr Philippe Kress for his contribution to the writing of the manuscript.



Conflicts of interest



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Copyright information

© International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • K. Lippuner
    • 1
    Email author
  • H. Johansson
    • 2
  • J. A. Kanis
    • 2
  • R. Rizzoli
    • 3
  1. 1.Osteoporosis Policlinic, InselspitalBern University Hospital and University of BernBernSwitzerland
  2. 2.WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone DiseasesUniversity of Sheffield Medical SchoolSheffieldUK
  3. 3.Division of Bone Diseases, WHO Collaborating Centre for Osteoporosis Prevention, Department of Rehabilitation and GeriatricsGeneva University Hospitals and Faculty of MedicineGenevaSwitzerland

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