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Empirical Economics

, Volume 58, Issue 1, pp 29–54 | Cite as

Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach

  • João C. Claudio
  • Katja HeinischEmail author
  • Oliver Holtemöller
Article
  • 68 Downloads

Abstract

Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany are not available, and hence, regional GDP forecasts do not play an important role in public budget planning. We provide a new quarterly time series for East German GDP and develop a forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account. Overall, we find that mixed-data sampling model forecasts for East German GDP in combination with model averaging outperform regional forecast models that only rely on aggregate national information.

Keywords

Business surveys East Germany MIDAS model Nowcasting 

JEL Classification

C22 C52 C53 E37 R11 

Notes

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Klaus Wohlrabe and Robert Lehmann, the participants of the IWH-CIREQ-GW-Macroeconometric Workshop 2017 and of the 1. Vienna Workshop on Economic Forecasting 2018 and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. Research assistance by Franziska Exß is gratefully acknowledged.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Leipzig UniversityLeipzigGermany
  2. 2.Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH)Halle (Saale)Germany
  3. 3.Martin Luther University Halle-WittenbergHalle (Saale)Germany

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