The economic cost of the Arab Spring: the case of the Egyptian revolution

  • Cruz A. EchevarríaEmail author
  • Javier García-Enríquez


This paper analyzes the effects that the Arab Spring and the subsequent revolution had on per capita real Gross Domestic Product in Egypt. The estimation procedure that we follow is the synthetic control method. After comparing the observed evolution of Egyptian real output in the period 2011–2017 with that of synthetic Egypt, our estimates show (i) an accumulated loss in the growth rate of per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 12.04% (a yearly average of 1.56%); (ii) an accumulated loss in the per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 6279.7 dollars (a yearly average of 897.1 dollars); and (iii) an accumulated loss in the aggregate real Gross Domestic Product of 582.5 billion dollars (a yearly average of 83.2 billion dollars).


Case study Synthetic control method Treatment effect Arab Spring Egypt 



We are deeply indebted to Javier Gardeazabal for his comments and suggestions on an earlier draft, to Martin Becker for his valuable help with the R code, and to the editor and two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer applies.

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

Both authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Cruz A. Echevarría
    • 1
    Email author
  • Javier García-Enríquez
    • 2
  1. 1.Departamento de Fundamentos del Análisis Económico IIUniversity of the Basque Country UPV/EHUBilbaoSpain
  2. 2.Departamento de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística)University of the Basque Country UPV/EHUBilbaoSpain

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