Empirical Economics

, Volume 48, Issue 2, pp 609–626 | Cite as

Is forecasting inflation easier under inflation targeting?

  • Harun Özkan
  • M. Ege Yazgan


This paper investigates whether monetary-policy regime changes affect the success of forecasting inflation. The forecasting performances of some linear and nonlinear univariate models are analyzed for 14 different countries that have adopted inflation-targeting (IT) monetary regimes at some point in their economic history. The results show that forecasting performance is generally superior under an IT monetary regime compared to nonIT (NIT) periods. In more than half of the countries covered in this study, superior forecasting accuracy can be achieved in IT periods regardless of the model used. In contrast, among most of the remaining countries, the results remain ambiguous, and the evidence on the superiority of NIT is limited to very few countries.


Inflation targeting Forecasting inflation Forecast accuracy 

JEL Classification

C45 C53 E31 E37 E42 E47 E52 E61 E65 


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsIstanbul Bilgi UniversityIstanbulTurkey

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