Empirical Economics

, Volume 35, Issue 3, pp 413–436 | Cite as

Forecasting inflation with an uncertain output gap

  • Hilde C. BjørnlandEmail author
  • Leif Brubakk
  • Anne Sofie Jore
Original Paper


The output gap is a crucial concept in the monetary policy framework, indicating demand pressure that generates inflation. However, its definition and estimation raise a number of theoretical and empirical questions. This paper evaluates a series of univariate and multivariate methods for extracting the output gap in Norway, and compares their value added in predicting inflation. We find that models including the output gap have better predictive power than models based on alternative indicators, and they forecast significantly better than simple benchmark models. Furthermore multivariate measures of the output gap perform better than the univariate gaps.


Output gap Forecast Phillips curve Forecast combination 

JEL Classification

C32 E31 E32 E37 


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Leif Brubakk
    • 2
  • Anne Sofie Jore
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsNorwegian School of Management (BI)OsloNorway
  2. 2.Norges BankOsloNorway

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