Abstract
Methods used for assessing economic impacts of proposed transportation projects have continually evolved over time. Whereas they once focused largely on the economic benefit of time and cost savings for travelers, they may now encompass broader factors such as accessibility roles in supply chains, labor market expansion, global trade growth, and their economic development implications. This broader view can be particularly important when considering transportation projects affecting network connectivity and activities of logistics centers, inter-modal terminals, and international gateway facilities. Using examples throughout history, a generalized description is developed of the range of access, reliability, quality and cost factors that can affect the nature of economic growth impacts of transportation projects. While the set of factors is consistent with both theory and research findings, there has been a significant shortfall in their coverage by applied computer analysis models used for transportation decision-making. This article critically examines the coverage of access impacts by various types of predictive economic impact models, and then describes new directions in applied models to assess transportation projects impacts on business productivity, growth and attraction. Finally, it outlines an analysis framework that is designed to facilitate use of improved modeling methods for assessing economic impacts of multi-modal transportation investment.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
ARC (1964) Appalachia: A report by the President’s Appalachian Regional Commission. US Government Printing Office, Washington
Bedford T and Cooke R (2001). Uncertainty: A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis. University of Cambridge Press, Cambridge
Blakely EJ, Bradshaw TK (2002) Human Resource Development, Chap. 9. In: Planning local economic development: theory and practice. Sage Publications, London
Bowersox DJ and Closs DJ (1996). Logistical management. the integrated supply chain process. McGraw-Hill, New York
Buckley P (1992). A transportation-oriented interregional computable general equilibrium model of the United States. Ann Reg Sci 26(4): 331–348
Cambridge Econometrics (2003) Transport infrastructure and policy macroeconomic analysis for the EU, European Commission
CATS (1962) Chicago area transportation study: transportation plan. Chicago Area Transportation Study, Chicago, IL
California Deptartment of Transportation (1994) Internet guide to benefit-cost analysis in transportation. http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/tpp/offices/ote/Benefit_Cost
Christaller W (1933). Central places in southern germany. Original German in 1933, translated by Charlisle Baskin. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Chiffs
Combes P-P and Lafourcade M (2005). Transport costs: measures, determinants and regional policy implications for France. J Econ Geogr 3: 319–349
Conference Board of Canada (1994) Slave Province transportation corridor: economic impacts and taxation revenue, Northwest Territories Deptartment of Transportation
Echenique MH (1994). Urban and regional studies at the Martine Centre: its origin, its present, its future. Environ Plan B Plan Des 21: 157–533
Economic Development Research Group and Cambridge Systematics (2001) Handbook for assessing economic opportunities from the completion of Appalachian Development Highways. Appalachian Regional Commission, Washington http://www.arc.gov/images/reports/highway/Handbook-Econ-Opps.pdf
Economic Development Research Group (2004) Handbook: assessing local economic development opportunities with ARC-LEAP. Appalachian Regional Commission, Washington http://www.arc.gov/images/reports/arcleap/ARC-LEAP_Handbook.pdf
Economic Development Research Group (2005) The cost of congestion to the Portland Region. Portland Business Alliance, Port of Portland and Metro, Portland http://www.portlandalliance.com/pdf/Congestion_Report.pdf
Enright MJ (1996). Regional clusters and economic development: a research agenda. In: Staber, U, Schaefer, N and Sharma, B (eds) Business networks: prospects for regional development, pp. Walter de Gruyter, New York
Forkenbrock D and Weisbrod G (2001). Guidebook for assessing social and economic effects of transportation projects, NCHRP Report 456. National Academy Press, New York
FHWA (1970) Benefits of Interstate Highways. Federal Highway Administration, Washington, DC
Fujita M, Krugman P and Venables A (2001). The spatial economy. Cambridge, MA
Highway Research Board (1966) Will model building and the computer solve our economic forecasting problems? Highway research record #149, pp 1–28
Horst T, Moore A (2003) Industrial diversity, economic development and highway investment in Louisiana. Transportation Research Record #1839, Transportation Research Board
Hunt JD, Abraham JE (2005) Design and implementation of PECAS: a generalized system for the allocation of economic production, exchange and consumption quantities. Chap. 11. In: Foundations of integrated land-use and transportation models: assumptions and new conceptual frameworks. Elsevier, London, pp 217–238
Isserman A, Rephan T (1995) The economic effects of the Appalachian Regional Commission : an empirical assessment of 26 years of regional development planning. APA J Summer pp 345–364
Ivanova O (2004) Evaluation of infrastructure welfare benefits in the Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) Framework. Department of Economics, University of Oslo. http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/seminar/torsdag-v03/ivanova.doc
Juri NR and Kockelman K (2006). Evaluation of the trans-texas corridor proposal: application and enhancements of the random utility based multiregional input–output model. J Trans Eng 132(7): 531–539
Kaliski J, Smith S, Weisbrod G (1999) Indiana’s major corridor investment–benefit analysis system. In: Proceedings of the seventh TRB conference on application of transportation planning methods
Krugman P (1991). Increasing returns and economic geography. J Pol Econ 99: 483–499
Krugman P (1995). Development, geography and economic theory. MIT, Cambridge
Leontief W (1951) Input–output economics. Scientific American, pp 15–21
Lindall S, Olson D, Alward G (2005) Multi-regional models: the IMPLAN national trade flows model. In: Proceedings of the 2005 MCRSA/SRSA Meetings, Arlington VA, April
Lopes LP (2003) Border effect and effective transport cost. Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra Portugal
Luskin D et al (1999) Facts and furphies in benefit–cost analysis: transport. Bureau of Transport Economics, Australia Deptartment of Transport of Regional Services, Report 100
Marshall A (1919) Industry and trade, Macmillan, New York. http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/econ/ugcm/3ll3/marshall/Industry&Trade.pdf
Martino A et al (2005) Macro-economic impact of the white paper policies, Annex XII of ASSESS Final Report, DG TREN, European Commission, Brussels
Nadiri I, Mamuneas TP (1998) Contribution of highway capital to output and productivity growth in the US economy and industries. Prepared for Federal Highway Administration, Washington, DC
Parsons Brinckerhoff, Cambridge Systematics, and Regional Source Research Institute (1989) Summary report: CONEG high speed rail regional benefits study: a report on the benefits to the region of improved passenger rail service between Boston and New York, Council of Northeastern Governors High Speed Rail Task Force
Pignataro LJ (1998) Transportation economic and land use system. Transportation research record #1617, Transportation Research Board
Politano A, Roadifer C (1989) Regional economic impact model for highway systems. Transportation Research Record 1229, Transportation Research Board
Schaffer W (1972). Estimating regional input–output coefficients. Rev Reg Stud 2(3): 57–71
Shen G (1960). An input–output table with regional weights. Pap Reg Sci Assoc 6: 113–119
Stokes RW, Pinnoi N, Washington EJ (1991) Economic development impacts of expenditures for state highway improvements in texas, Texas Transportation Institute for Texas DOT
Targa F, Clifton K, Mahmassani H (2005) Economic activity and transportation access: an econometric analysis of business spatial patterns. Transportation Research Record #1932, Transportation Research Board
Weber A (1929). Theory of the Location of Industries. translated by C. J. Friedrich. University of Chicago Press, Chicago
Weisbrod G and Beckwith J (1992). Measuring economic development benefits for highway decision-making: The Wisconsin case. Transp Q 46(1): 57–79
Weisbrod G and Treyz F (1998). Productivity and accessibility: bridging project-specific and Macro-economic Analyses of Transportation Investments. J Trans Stat 1(3): 65–79
Weisbrod G, Vary D, Treyz G (2003) Measuring the economic costs of urban traffic congestion to business. Transportation Research Record #1839, Transportation Research Board, pp 98–106
Weiss M (2002) A brief history of economic development and highways. Paper presented at the TRB Conference on Transportation and Economic Development (TED2002), also published by the Federal Highway Administration web site at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/econdev/edhist.htm
Wornum C et al (2005) Montana highway reconfiguration study, Cambridge Systematics Economic Development Research Group, ICF and SEH for the Montana Deptartment of Transportation. http://www.mdt.mt.gov/research/docs/reconfig/final_report.pdf
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Weisbrod, G. Models to predict the economic development impact of transportation projects: historical experience and new applications. Ann Reg Sci 42, 519–543 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-007-0184-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-007-0184-9