Hate at first sight? Dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration: the case of Ukip
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In this paper, we test the hypothesis that the causal effect of immigrant presence on anti-immigrant votes is a short-run effect. For this purpose, we consider a distributed lag model and adapt the standard instrumental variable approach proposed by Altonji and Card (1991) to a dynamic framework. The evidence from our case study, votes for the UK Independent Party (Ukip) in recent European elections, supports our hypothesis. Furthermore, we find that this effect is robust to differences across areas in terms of population density and socioeconomic characteristics, and it is only partly explained by integration issues.
KeywordsImmigration Voting Political economy
JEL codesP16 J61 D72
We thank Christian Dustmann, Carlo De Villanova, Edoardo Di Porto, Tommaso Frattini, Majlinda Joxhe, Fabrizio Mazzonna, Paolo Naticchioni, and Jackie Wabha for their comments and suggestions. A previous version of this work has been presented to the “International Conference on Migration and Welfare” (Sapienza University of Rome), “3rd Workshop on the Economics of Migration” (Southampton University), “LUMSA Economics Seminars” (LUMSA University), “The Economics of Post-Factual Democracy Conference” (University of Copenhagen), “The Law of Economics of Migration and Mobility Conference” (University of Bern), “Workshop on Recent Developments on Migration Issues” (BETA, Luxembourg), and to the INEQ Research Group meeting (Sapienza University of Rome). We are grateful to all the participants for their useful hints. We thank the editor Klaus F. Zimmermann and two anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions that led to a considerable improvement of the paper. A slightly different version of this work circulated under the title “Hate at first sight? Dynamic aspects of the electoral impact of migration: The case of UK and Brexit” as a SPRU Working Paper. The usual disclaimer applies.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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