Journal of Population Economics

, Volume 32, Issue 2, pp 591–620 | Cite as

Rising longevity, fertility dynamics, and R&D-based growth

  • Koichi Futagami
  • Kunihiko KonishiEmail author
Original Paper


This study constructs an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility, mortality, and R&D activities. We demonstrate that the model explains the observed fertility dynamics of developed countries. When the level of per capita wage income is either low or high, an increase in such income raises the fertility rate. When the level of per capita wage income is in the middle, an increase in such income decreases the fertility rate. The model also predicts the observed relationship between population growth and innovative activity. At first, both the rates of population growth and technological progress increase; that is, there is a positive relationship. Thereafter, the rate of population growth decreases but the rate of technological progress increases, showing a negative relationship.


Fertility Mortality R&D Economic development 

JEL Classification

J13 O30 O40 



We would like to express our sincere gratitude to Prof. Alessandro Cigno and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments and suggestions. We would like to thank Real Arai, Masaru Inaba, Koji Kitaura, Kazutoshi Miyazawa, Akihisa Shibata, Kouki Sugawara, Kizuku Takao, Takashi Unayama, Akira Yakita, and the seminar participants at the Kansai University, Kyoto University, and Nagoya Gakuin University for their useful comments. Any errors are our responsibility.


This study was funded by a grant from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant number 16J09472).

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Graduate School of EconomicsOsaka UniversityToyonakaJapan
  2. 2.Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), Institute of Economic ResearchKyoto UniversityKyotoJapan

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