Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures
- 398 Downloads
- 5 Citations
Abstract
I estimate the effect of shocks to subjective mortality hazards on consumption expenditures of retired individuals using the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. I measure mortality expectations with survey responses on survival probabilities. To create plausibly exogenous variation in mortality hazard, I use the death of a sibling as an instrument. My results show that survey responses contain economically relevant information about longevity expectations and confirm the predictions of life-cycle theories about the effect of these expectations on intertemporal choice.
Keywords
Consumption decisions Subjective longevity IV estimationNotes
Acknowledgements
An earlier version of this paper is a part of my PhD thesis written at the Central European University. I am grateful for comments received from the anonymous referees, Gábor Kézdi, Miklós Koren, from seminar participants at CEU, HECER, IHS, ROA, The University of Edinburgh, and at the European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society in Rome.
References
- Angrist JD, Imbens GW, Krueger AB (1999) Jackknife instrumental variables estimation. J Appl Econ 14:57–67CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Attanasio OP, Weber G (1995) Is consumption growth consistent with intertemporal optimization? Evidence from the consumer expenditure survey. J Polit Econ 103:1121–1157CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Baum CF, Schaffer ME, Stillman S (2007) Ivreg2: stata module for extended instrumental variables/2SLS, GMM and AC/HAC, LIML, and k-class regression. Boston College Department of Economics, Statistical Software Components S425401. Downloadable from http://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s425401.html
- Bloom DE, Canning D, Moore M, Song Y (2007) The effect of subjective survival probabilities on retirement and wealth in the United States. In: Clark R, Mason A, Ogawa N (eds) Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy. Elgar Press, London, pp 67–97Google Scholar
- Börsch-Supan A, Brugiavini A, Jürges H, Kapteyn A, Mackenbach J, Siegrist J, Weber W (eds) (2008) Health, ageing and retirement in Europe (2004–2007). Starting the longitudinal dimension. Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), MannheimGoogle Scholar
- Browning M, Lusardi A (1996) Household saving: micro theories and micro facts. J Econ Lit 34:1797–1855Google Scholar
- Campbell J, Deaton A (1989) Why is consumption so smooth? Rev Econ Stud 56:357–373CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Davidson R, MacKinnon JG (1993) Estimation and inference in econometrics. Oxford University PressGoogle Scholar
- De Nardi M, French E, Jones JB (2006) Differential mortality, uncertain medical expenses, and the saving of elderly singles. NBER WP, No. 12554Google Scholar
- Elder TE (2007) Subjective survival probabilities in the health and retirement study: systematic biases and predictive validity. University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center WP, No 2007-159Google Scholar
- Finkelstein A, Luttmer EFP, Notowidigdo MJ (2008) What good is wealth without health? The effect of health on the marginal utility of consumption. NBER WP, No 14089Google Scholar
- Flavin MA (1981) The adjustment of consumption to changing expectations about future income. J Polit Econ 89:974–1009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Gan L, Gong G, Hurd MD, McFadden D (2004) Subjective mortality risk and bequests. NBER WP, No 10789Google Scholar
- Gan L, Hurd MD, McFadden D (2005) Individual subjective survival curves. In: Wise D (ed) Analyses in economics of aging. The University of Chicago Press, pp 377–411Google Scholar
- Hahn J, Hausman JA, Kuersteiner GM (2004) Estimation with weak instruments: accuracy of higher-order bias and MSE approximations. Econom J 7:272–306CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Hamermesh DS (1985) Expectations, life expectancy, and economic behavior. Q J Econ 100:389–408CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Hock H, Weil DN (2012) On the dynamics of the age structure, dependency, and consumption. J Popul Econ 25:1019–1043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Hurd MD (1989) Mortality risk and bequests. Econometrica 57:779–813CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Hurd MD, McGarry K (1995) Evaluation of the subjective probabilities of survival in the health and retirement study. J Hum Resour 30:S268–S292CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Li H, Zhang J, Zhang J (2007) Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: evidence from a panel of cross countries. J Dev Econ 84:138–154CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Manski CF (2004) Measuring expectations. Econometrica 72:1329–1376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Mork KA, Smith VK (1989) Testing the life-cycle hypothesis with a Norwegian household panel. J Bus Econ Stat 7:287–296Google Scholar
- Parker JA, Preston B (2005) Precautionary saving and consumption fluctuations. Am Econ Rev 95:1119–1143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Poi BP (2006) Jackknife instrumental variables estimation in Stata. Stata J 6:364–376Google Scholar
- Post T, Hanewald K (2011) Longevity Risk, subjective survival expectations, and individual saving behavior. Netspar DP, 07/2010-043 (revised version March 2011)Google Scholar
- Salm M (2010) Subjective mortality expectations and consumption and saving behaviours among the elderly. Can J Econ 43:1040–1057Google Scholar
- Skinner J (1985a) Variable lifespan and the intertemporal elasticity of consumption. Rev Econ Stat 67:616–623CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Skinner J (1985b) The effect of increased longevity on capital accumulation. Am Econ Rev 75:1143–1150Google Scholar
- Smith VK, Taylor DH, Sloan FA (2001) Longevity expectations and death: can people predict their own demise? Am Econ Rev 91:1126–1134CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tobing E (2012) Demography and cross-country differences in savings rates: a new approach and evidence. J Popul Econ 25:963–987CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Yaari ME (1965) Uncertain lifetime, life insurance, and the theory of the consumer. Rev Econ Stud 32:137–150CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Zeldes SP (1989) Consumption and liquidity constraints: an empirical investigation. J Polit Econ 97:305–346CrossRefGoogle Scholar