Journal of Population Economics

, Volume 26, Issue 3, pp 835–853

HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys

Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0456-2

Cite this article as:
Juhn, C., Kalemli-Ozcan, S. & Turan, B. J Popul Econ (2013) 26: 835. doi:10.1007/s00148-012-0456-2


The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. We utilize recent rounds of the demographic and health surveys that link an individual woman’s fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allow us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that although HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility, local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on noninfected women’s fertility.


HIV/AIDS Fertility Economic development 

Mathematics Subject Classifications (2010)

O12 I12 J13 

Supplementary material

148_2012_456_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (110 kb)
(PDF 948 KB)
148_2012_456_MOESM2_ESM.tex (17 kb)
(TEX 17 KB)

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Chinhui Juhn
    • 1
    • 2
  • Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
    • 1
    • 2
  • Belgi Turan
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of EconomicsUniversity of HoustonHoustonUSA
  2. 2.NBERCambridgeUSA
  3. 3.Department of EconomicsUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkUSA
  4. 4.Economics DepartmentAtilim UniversityAnkaraTurkey

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