Journal of Population Economics

, Volume 26, Issue 3, pp 1007–1033

For richer, if not for poorer? Marriage and divorce over the business cycle

Original Paper

DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0413-0

Cite this article as:
Schaller, J. J Popul Econ (2013) 26: 1007. doi:10.1007/s00148-012-0413-0


Despite anecdotal evidence that recessions affect marriage and divorce rates, researchers do not agree about the direction and magnitude of the relationship. This paper reexamines the effect of business cycles on flows into and out of marriage, finding that increased unemployment rates are associated with reductions in both outcomes. The results are robust to the use of alternative measures of economic conditions, hold for both blacks and whites, and are concentrated among working-age individuals. Lag specifications and impulse response functions suggest that the effect of an unemployment shock on marriage is permanent, while the effect on divorce is temporary.


Marriage Marital dissolution 

JEL Classification


Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of EconomicsUniversity of CaliforniaDavisUSA

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