The rise in absenteeism: disentangling the impacts of cohort, age and time
In recent years, a number of welfare state economies, including Norway, have experienced substantial increases in sickness absence. Using longitudinal individual register data for virtually all Norwegian employees, we examine the remarkable rise since the early 1990s, with emphasis on disentangling the roles of cohort, age, and time. We show that individual age-adjusted absence propensities have risen even more than aggregate absence rates from 1993 to 2005, which casts doubt on the popular hypotheses that the rise was due to the inclusion into the workforce of young or marginal workers with weaker work-norms or poorer health.
KeywordsSick leave Work-norms Multicollinearity
JEL ClassificationC23 I38 J22
This paper is part of the project “Absenteeism in Norway—Causes, Consequences, and Policy Implications”, financed by the Norwegian Research Council (grant #187924). We thank the Editor and two anonymous referees for useful comments.
- Baltagi BH (2008) Econometric analysis of panel data, 4th edn. Wiley, ChichesterGoogle Scholar
- Biørn E (2010) Identifying trend and age effects in sickness absence from individual data. Some econometric problems. Memorandum No. 20/2010, Economics Department, University of OsloGoogle Scholar
- Gaure S (2012) Dummy-encoding of inherently collinear variables. Working Paper 1/2012, The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic ResearchGoogle Scholar
- Greene WH (2008) Econometric analysis, 6th edn. Prentice Hall, New JerseyGoogle Scholar
- Hilbe JM (2009) Logistic regression models. Chapman & Hall/CRC, New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Kupper LL, Janis JM, Salama IA, Yoshizawa CN, Greenberg BG (1983) Age-period-cohort analysis: an illustration of the problems in assessing interaction in one observation per cell data. Commun Stat Theory Methods 12(23):2779–2807Google Scholar
- Lechner M, Lollivier S, Magnac T (2008) Parametric binary choice models. In: Matyas L, Sevestre P (eds) The econometrics of panel data, chapter 7. Fundamentals and recent developments in theory and practice, 3rd edn. Springer, HeidelbergGoogle Scholar
- Lindbeck A (1995) Hazardous welfare-state dynamics. Am Econ Rev, Papers and Proceedings 85:9–15Google Scholar
- Markussen S (2009) Closing the gates? Evidence from a natural experiment on physicians’ sickness certification. Memorandum No. 19/2009, Department of Economics, University of OsloGoogle Scholar
- Røed K, Fevang E (2007) Organizational change, absenteeism, and welfare dependency. J Hum Resour 42(1):156–193Google Scholar