Journal of Population Economics

, Volume 18, Issue 2, pp 275–300 | Cite as

Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis

  • Allen C. Kelley
  • Robert M. Schmidt


This paper develops a flexible framework for modeling population's role in economic growth by assessing and extending a rendering suggested by several Harvard economists. Our framework includes a ``productivity'' model explaining output-per-worker growth and a ``translation'' model translating that growth into per-capita terms. We specify a core economic model and several ``enriched'' demographic variants that include dependency, size, and density. Regressions using a cross-country panel spanning the period 1960-1995 reveal that combined impacts of demographic change have accounted for approximately 20% of per capita output growth impacts, with larger shares in Asia and Europe.

JEL classification

O11 J1 O4 


Demography convergence growth 


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Duke UniversityDurhamUSA
  2. 2.Robins School of Business University of RichmondRichmondUSA

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