Recalibration of the delirium prediction model for ICU patients (PRE-DELIRIC): a multinational observational study
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Recalibration and determining discriminative power, internationally, of the existing delirium prediction model (PRE-DELIRIC) for intensive care patients.
A prospective multicenter cohort study was performed in eight intensive care units (ICUs) in six countries. The ten predictors (age, APACHE-II, urgent and admission category, infection, coma, sedation, morphine use, urea level, metabolic acidosis) were collected within 24 h after ICU admission. The confusion assessment method for the intensive care unit (CAM-ICU) was used to identify ICU delirium. CAM-ICU screening compliance and inter-rater reliability measurements were used to secure the quality of the data.
A total of 2,852 adult ICU patients were screened of which 1,824 (64 %) were eligible for the study. Main reasons for exclusion were length of stay <1 day (19.1 %) and sustained coma (4.1 %). CAM-ICU compliance was mean (SD) 82 ± 16 % and inter-rater reliability 0.87 ± 0.17. The median delirium incidence was 22.5 % (IQR 12.8–36.6 %). Although the incidence of all ten predictors differed significantly between centers, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the eight participating centers remained good: 0.77 (95 % CI 0.74–0.79). The linear predictor and intercept of the prediction rule were adjusted and resulted in improved re-calibration of the PRE-DELIRIC model.
In this multinational study, we recalibrated the PRE-DELIRIC model. Despite differences in the incidence of predictors between the centers in the different countries, the performance of the PRE-DELIRIC-model remained good. Following validation of the PRE-DELIRIC model, it may facilitate implementation of strategies to prevent delirium and aid improvements in delirium management of ICU patients.
KeywordsDelirium Prediction model Recalibration Critical care
The authors would like to thank Amanda McCairn and Sue Dowling (research nurses, Whiston Hospital), Anna Schandl (PhD student, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm) Lena James and Rod Hurford (Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane, Australia) Walter Verbrugghe, Petra Vertongen (MD/staff member and data management, Antwerp University Hospital, Belgium) for their help in collecting the patient data.
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
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