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Searching for mortality predictors in trauma patients: a challenging task

  • A. A. Cevik
  • F. M. Abu-Zidan
Original Article

Abstract

Background

We aimed to study the value of new physiological variables compared with ISS and GCS as predictors for trauma mortality in a high-income developing country having a young population.

Methods

Data of 1008 consecutive trauma patients who were included in Al-Ain City Road Traffic Collision Registry were analyzed. Demography of patients, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, shock index, shock index age (SIA), blood pressure age index (BPAI), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), injury severity score (ISS), and in-hospital mortality were analyzed. Univariate analysis was used to compare those who died with those who survived. Significant factors were then entered into a backward logistic regression model to define factors predicting mortality.

Results

80.3% of the patients were males. The median (range) age of patients was 26 (1–78) years. Significant factors that predicted mortality were GCS (p < 0.0001), SIA (p = 0.003), ISS (p = 0.007), and BPAI (p = 0.022).

Conclusions

The physiological variables including GCS and shock index age were better predictors for trauma mortality comparted with ISS in our young population. A large global multi-centric study could possibly define an accurate global formula that uses both anatomical and physiological variables for predicting trauma mortality.

Keywords

Shock index age Glasgow coma scale Injury severity score Trauma Mortality 

Abbreviations

BPAI

Blood pressure age index

MP

Minute pulse

MSI

Modified shock index

PMI

Pulse maximum index

ROPE

Rate over pulse pressure evaluation index

SI

Shock index

SIA

Shock index age

Notes

Compliance with ethical standards

Conflict of interest

Arif Alper Cevik and Fikri Abu-Zidan declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Research involving human participants

Data collection of the registry was approved by the Local Ethics Committee of the Health District of Al-Ain city and met the standards outlined in the Declaration of Helsinki.

Informed consent

All patients or their caregivers signed a consent form giving permission to use their anonymous data for research.

Funding

This study was supported by an Interdisciplinary UAE University Grant (no. 02-07-8-1/4).

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Emergency Medicine Section, Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine and Health SciencesUnited Arab Emirates UniversityAl AinUnited Arab Emirates
  2. 2.Department of Surgery, College of Medicine and Health SciencesUnited Arab Emirates UniversityAl AinUnited Arab Emirates

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