International Journal of Public Health

, Volume 57, Issue 5, pp 849–854 | Cite as

Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in china

  • Faye Chan
  • Susana Adamo
  • Pamela Coxson
  • Lee Goldman
  • Dongfeng Gu
  • Dong Zhao
  • Chung-Shiuan Chen
  • Jiang He
  • Valentina Mara
  • Andrew Moran
Brief Report

Abstract

Objectives

The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.

Methods

Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.

Results

Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0–45.6 % in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73–81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly.

Conclusions

Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

Keywords

Urbanization Migration Cardiovascular disease China 

Notes

Acknowledgments

Grants and financial support: This study was supported by a Columbia University Earth Institute Cross-Cutting Initiative grant to Drs. Adamo and Moran and Mentored Career Development Award number K08HL089675 from the United States National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the NIH to Dr. Moran.

Conflict of interest

The authors have no conflicts of interest to report.

Supplementary material

38_2012_400_MOESM1_ESM.docx (257 kb)
Supplementary material 1 (DOCX 256 kb)

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Copyright information

© Swiss School of Public Health 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Faye Chan
    • 1
  • Susana Adamo
    • 2
  • Pamela Coxson
    • 3
  • Lee Goldman
    • 4
  • Dongfeng Gu
    • 5
  • Dong Zhao
    • 6
  • Chung-Shiuan Chen
    • 7
  • Jiang He
    • 7
  • Valentina Mara
    • 2
  • Andrew Moran
    • 8
  1. 1.Department of MedicineColumbia University Medical CenterNew YorkUSA
  2. 2.Center for International Earth Science Information NetworkColumbia UniversityNew YorkUSA
  3. 3.University of California at San FranciscoSan FranciscoUSA
  4. 4.College of Physicians and SurgeonsColumbia University Medical CenterNew YorkUSA
  5. 5.Department of Evidence Based Medicine, Cardiovascular Institute and Fu Wai Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical SciencesNational Center for Cardiovascular DiseasesBeijingChina
  6. 6.Department of EpidemiologyBeijing Institute of Heart, Lung, and Blood Vessel DiseasesBeijingChina
  7. 7.Department of EpidemiologyTulane UniversityNew OrleansUSA
  8. 8.Division of General Medicine, Department of MedicineColumbia University Medical CenterNew YorkUSA

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