Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in china
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The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.
Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.
Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0–45.6 % in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73–81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly.
Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.
KeywordsUrbanization Migration Cardiovascular disease China
Grants and financial support: This study was supported by a Columbia University Earth Institute Cross-Cutting Initiative grant to Drs. Adamo and Moran and Mentored Career Development Award number K08HL089675 from the United States National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the NIH to Dr. Moran.
Conflict of interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest to report.
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