Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in china
- 702 Downloads
The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.
Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.
Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0–45.6 % in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73–81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly.
Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.
KeywordsUrbanization Migration Cardiovascular disease China
Grants and financial support: This study was supported by a Columbia University Earth Institute Cross-Cutting Initiative grant to Drs. Adamo and Moran and Mentored Career Development Award number K08HL089675 from the United States National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the NIH to Dr. Moran.
Conflict of interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest to report.
- Gu D, Gupta A, Muntner P, Hu S, Duan X, Chen J, Reynolds RF, Whelton PK, He J (2005) Prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factor clustering among the adult population of China: results from the International Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Disease in Asia (InterAsia). Circulation 112(5):658–665PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Liu S, Li X, Zhang M (2003) Scenario analysis on urbanization and rural-urban migration in China. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Interim Report IR-03-036. Interim Report IR-03-036Google Scholar
- Lozano R, Murray CJL, Lopez AD, Satoh T (2001) Miscoding and misclassification of ischaemic heart disease mortality. Global Programme on Evidence for Health Policy Working Paper No. 12. World Health Organization, GenevaGoogle Scholar
- Moran A, Gu D, Zhao D, Coxson P, Wang YC, Chen CS, Liu J, Cheng J, Bibbins-Domingo K, Shen YM et al (2010) Future cardiovascular disease in china: markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the coronary heart disease policy model-china. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 3(3):243–252PubMedCrossRefGoogle Scholar
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2010) World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 RevisionGoogle Scholar
- World Health Organization (2010) Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS)Google Scholar