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pure and applied geophysics

, Volume 152, Issue 1, pp 37–55 | Cite as

Intermediate-term Predictions of Earthquakes in Italy: Algorithm M8

  • L. L. Romachkova
  • V. G. Kossobokov
  • G. F. Panza
  • G. Costa
Article

Abstract

—Large earthquakes in Italy are preceded by a specific seismic activation which could be diagnosed by a reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction method—a modification for lower seismic rate areas of the algorithm, known as M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990). Use has been made of the PFG-ING catalog of earthquakes, compiled on a regular basis, to determine areas and times of increased probability for occurrences of M≥ 6 earthquakes. In retroactive simulation of forward prediction, for the period 1972–1995, both the 1976 Friuli, M = 6.1 and the 1980 Irpinia, M = 6.5 earthquakes are predicted. In the experiment where priority magnitude scale is used, the times of increased probability for a strong earthquake to occur (TIPs) occupy less than a quarter of the total magnitude-space-time domain, and are rather stable with respect to positioning of circles of investiga tion. Successful stability tests have been made considering a recently compiled catalog (CCI97) (Peresan et al., 1997). In combination with the CN algorithm results (Costa et al., 1996) the spatio-temporal uncertainty of the prediction could be reduced to 5%. The use of M8 for the forward prediction requires the computations to be repeated each half-year, using the updated catalog.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, algorithm M8, seismicity, Italy. 

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Copyright information

© Birkhäuser-Verlag Basel 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • L. L. Romachkova
    • 1
  • V. G. Kossobokov
    • 1
  • G. F. Panza
    • 1
  • G. Costa
    • 1
  1. 1.International Centre for Theoretical Physics, SAND Group, Strada Costiera 11, 34100, Trieste, Italy. Fax: +39-40-575519, e-mail: panza@geosunø.univ.trieste.itIT

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