Statistical Method of Forecasting of Seasonal Precipitation over the Northwest Himalayas: North Atlantic Oscillation as Precursor
- 5 Downloads
Dynamical and Statistical models are operationally used by Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE) for winter precipitation forecasting over the Northwest Himalayas (NWH). In this paper, a statistical regression model developed for seasonal (December–April) precipitation forecast over Northwest Himalaya is discussed. After carrying out the analysis of various atmospheric parameters that affect the winter precipitation over the NWH two parameters are selected such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over specific areas of North Atlantic Ocean for the development of statistical regression model. A set of 27 years (1990–1991 to 2016–2017) of observed precipitation data and parameters (NAO and OLR) are utilized. Out of 27 years of data, first 20 years (1990–1991 to 2009–2010) are used for the development of regression model and remaining 7 years (2010–2011 to 2016–2017) are used for the validation purpose. Precipitation over NWH mainly associated with Western Disturbances (WDs) and the results of the present study reveal that NAO during SON has negative relationship with WDs and also with the winter precipitation over same region. Quantitative validation of the multiple regression model, result shows good Skill Score and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) which is 0.79 and 0.45 respectively and BIAS − 0.92.
KeywordsNorth Atlantic oscillation outgoing long wave radiation statistical model western Himalaya
Authors are thankful to the technical staff of Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE), India for collecting the data in extreme weather conditions from rugged mountainous terrain of Northwest Himalaya.
- Asnani, G.C., 2005: Tropical meteorology. (Pune, India; G.C.Asnani).Google Scholar
- Bhutiyani, M. R., Kale, V. S., & Pawar, N. J. (2010). Climate change and the precipitation variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866–2006. International Journal of Climatology,30, 535–548.Google Scholar
- Cannon, F., Carvalho, L. M. V., Jones, C., Hoell, A., Norris, J., Kiladis, G. N., et al. (2016). The influence of tropical forcing on extreme winter precipitation in the western Himalaya. Climate Dynamics,48, 3–4.Google Scholar
- Dash, S. K., Shekhar, M. S., Singh, G. P., & Vernekar, A. D. (2002). Relation between surface fields over Indian Ocean and monsoon rainfall over homogeneous zones of India. Mausam,53, 133–144.Google Scholar
- Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., & Visbeck, M. (2003). An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation—Climatic Significance and Environmental Impact. Geophysical Monograph,134, 1–35.Google Scholar
- Liebmann, B., & Smith, C. A. (1996). Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bulletin of American Meteorology Society,77, 1275–1277.Google Scholar
- Moriasi, D. N., Arnold, J. G., Van Liew, M. W., Bingner, R. L., Harmel, R. D., & Veith, T. L. (2007). Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of American Society of Agriculture and Biological Engineers,50(3), 885–900.Google Scholar
- Nakamura, T., Yamazaki, K., Iwamoto, K., Honda, M., Miyoshi, Y., Ogawa, Y., et al. (2015). A negative phase shift of the winter AO/NAO due to the recent Arctic sea-ice reduction in late autumn. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120(8), 3209–3227.Google Scholar
- Pisharoty, P. R., & Desai, B. N. (1956). Western disturbances and Indian weather. Indian Journal of Meteorological Geophysics,8, 333–338.Google Scholar
- Rajeevan, M., Pai, D. S., Dikshit, S. K., & Kelkar, R. R. (2004). IMD’s new operational models for long range forecast of south–west monsoon rainfall over India and their verification for 2003. Current Science,86, 422–431.Google Scholar
- Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J., Kale, J. D., & Lal, B. (2006). High resolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active monsoon spells. Current Science, 91, 296–306.Google Scholar
- Rao, Y.P. (1981). The climate of Indian subcontinent, In: World Survey of Climatology, 9.Google Scholar
- Shekhar, M. S., Devi, U., Paul, S., Singh, G. P., & Singh, A. (2017). Analysis of trends in extreme precipitation events over Western Himalaya Region: intensity and duration wise study. Journal of Indian Geophysical Union,21(3), 225–231.Google Scholar
- Singh, J., Knapp, H. V., & Demissie, M. (2004). Hydrologic Modeling of the Iroquois River Watershed Using HSPF and SWAT. Illinois Department of Natural Resources and the Illinois State Geological Survey. Contract Report-Illinois State Water Survey, 2004-08. http://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/CR/ISWSCR2004-08.pdf.