South Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability and Trend: Its Links to Indo-Pacific SST Anomalies and Moist Processes
- 220 Downloads
The warm (cold) phase of El Niño (La Niña) and its impact on all Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall (AISMR) relationship is explored for the past 100 years. The 103-year (1901–2003) data from the twentieth century reanalysis datasets (20CR) and other major reanalysis datasets for southwest monsoon season (JJAS) is utilized to find out the simultaneous influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-AISMR relationship. Two cases such as wet, dry monsoon years associated with ENSO(+) (El Niño), ENSO(−) (La Niña) and Non-ENSO (neutral) events have been discussed in detail using observed rainfall and three-dimensional 20CR dataset. The dry and wet years associated with ENSO and Non-ENSO periods show significant differences in the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with three-dimensional atmospheric composite, the 20CR dataset has captured the anomalies quite well. During wet (dry) years, the rainfall is high (low), i.e. 10 % above (below) average from the long-term mean and this wet or dry condition occur both during ENSO and Non-ENSO phases. The Non-ENSO year dry or wet composites are also focused in detail to understand, where do the anomalous winds come from unlike in the ENSO case. The moisture transport is coherent with the changes in the spatial pattern of AISMR and large-scale feature in the 20CR dataset. Recent 50-year trend (1951–2000) is also analyzed from various available observational and reanalysis datasets to see the influence of Indo-Pacific SST and moist processes on the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trend. Apart from the Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST), the moisture convergence and moisture transport among India (IND), Equatorial Indian Ocean (IOC) and tropical western pacific (WNP) is also important in modifying the wet or dry cycles over India. The mutual interaction among IOC, WNP and IND in seasonal timescales is significant in modifying wet and dry cycles over the Indian region and the seasonal anomalies.
KeywordsAll India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) El Niño La Niño moisture convergence wet year and dry year composites Walker and Hadley circulation Indian monsoon precipitation trend
Author sincerely thanks Director Dr. Cheung Sung, APEC Climate Center (APCC), Busan for providing facilities to carry out this work. Author sincerely thanks the editor and anonymous reviewers for their encouraging comments. He also acknowledges many centers for providing datasets. The diagrams used for this study have been prepared using the free software packages like GrADS and XMGRACE and computational work done on free Intel Fortran compilers and the Linux operating system environment.
- Adler R.F., G.J. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, P. Xie, J. Janowiak, B. Rudolf, U. Schneider, S. Curtis, D. Bolvin, A. Gruber, J. Susskind, and P. Arkin, 2003: The version 2 global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147–1167.Google Scholar
- Ailikun B, Yasunari T. 2001. ENSO and Asian summer monsoon: persistence and transitivity in the seasonal March. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 79: 145–159.Google Scholar
- Annamalai, H, K. Hamilton and K. R. Sperber, 2007, The South Asian summer monsoon and its relationship with ENSO in the IPCC AR4 simulations. J. Climate, 20, 1071–1092.Google Scholar
- Annamalai, H., J. Hafner, K.P. Sooraj, and P. Pillai, 2013: Global warming shifts the monsoon circulation, drying South Asia J. Climate, 26 (9), 2701–2718.Google Scholar
- Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata (2007), El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi: 10.1029/2006JC003798.
- Blanford, H.H., 1884: On the connection of Himalayan snowfall and seasons of drought in India. Proc. R. Soc., London, 37, 467–487.Google Scholar
- Compo GP, Coauthors (2011) The Twentieth Century reanalysis project. Quarterly J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1–28.Google Scholar
- Gadgil, S., M. Rajeevan and P. A. Francis. (2007) Monsoon variability: links to major oscillations over the equatorial Pacific and Indian oceans, Current Science, 182, Vol. 93(2).Google Scholar
- Gadgil, S., P. N. Vinayachandran and P. A. Francis (2003), Droughts of Indian summer monsoon: role of clouds over the Indian Ocean; Current Science, 85, 1713–1719.Google Scholar
- Gadgil, S., P. N. Vinayachandran, P. A. Francis, and Sidhartha Gadgil (2004) Extremes of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, ENSO and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, (L1)2213 doi: 10.1029/2004GL019733.
- Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J. and Lister, D.H. (2014), Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology 34, 623–642.Google Scholar
- Kalnay, E., M. Kanamitsu, R. Kistler, W. Collins, D. Deaven, L. Gandin, M. Iredell, S. Saha, G. White, J. Woollen, Y. Zhu, M. Chelliah, W. Ebisuzaki, W. Higgins, J. Janowiak, K. C. Mo, C. Ropelewski, J. Wang, A. Leetmaa, R. Reynolds, R. Jenne, and D. Joseph, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-yearreanalysis project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471.Google Scholar
- Kinter, J. L., K. Miyakoda, and S. Yang, 2002, Recent changes in the connection from the Asian monsoon to ENSO. J. Climate, 15, 1203–1214.Google Scholar
- Krishna Kumar, K., Rajagopalan, B. and Cane, M.A., 1999a: On the weakening relationship between the Indian Monsoon and ENSO, Science, 284, 2156–2159.Google Scholar
- Krishna Kumar, K., Kleeman, R., Cane, M.A. and Rajagopalan, B., 1999b: Epochal changes in Indian Monsoon-ENSO Precursors, Geophysical Research Letters, 26, 75–78.Google Scholar
- Krishna Kumar, K., B. Rajagopalan, M. Hoerling, G. Bates and M. Cane, 2006, Unraveling the Mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño, Science. doi: 10.1126/science.1131152.
- Kripalani R. H., A. Kulkarni (1997), Climate impacts of ElNino/LaNina on the Indian monsoon: A new perspective. Weather 52:39–46.Google Scholar
- Kripalani, R.H. and Kulkarni, A. 1999, Climatology and variability of historical Soviet snow depth data: Some new perspectives in snow-Indian monsoon teleconnections, Climate Dynamics, 15, 475–489.Google Scholar
- Latif, M., and Coauthors, 1998: A review of the predictability and prediction of ENSO. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 375–14 393.Google Scholar
- Legates, D. R. and C. J. Willmott (1990). Mean seasonal and spatial variability in gauge-corrected, global precipitation. International Journal of Climatology, 10, 111–127.Google Scholar
- Onogi, K., J. Tsutsui, H. Koide, M. Sakamoto, S. Kobayashi, H. Hatsushika, T. Matsumoto, N. Yamazaki, H. Kamahori, K. Takahashi, S. Kadokura, K. Wada, K. Kato, R. Oyama, T. Ose, N. Mannoji, and R. Taira, 2007: The JRA-25 Reanalysis. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369–432.Google Scholar
- Pant, G.B. and Parthasarathy, B., 1981. Some aspects of an association between the southern oscillation and Indian summer monsoon. Arch. Meteorol. Geophys. Biokl., Sr. B., 29, 245–251.Google Scholar
- Parthasarathy, B., A. A. Munot, and D. R. Kothawale, 1994, All-India monthly and seasonal rainfall series: 1871– 1993. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 49: 217–224.Google Scholar
- Prasanna V, Yasunari T (2008) Interannual variability of Atmospheric water balance over South peninsular India and Sri Lanka during North East Monsoon season. Intl J Climatol 28:1997–2009.Google Scholar
- Prasanna V, Yasunari T (2009) Time-space characteristics of seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric water balance over South Asia. J Meteor Soc Jpn 87:263–287.Google Scholar
- Prasanna, V., and T. Yasunari, 2011: Simulated Changes in the atmospheric water balance over south Asia in the eight IPCC-AR4 coupled climate models. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 104:139-158.Google Scholar
- Prasanna, V., and H. Annamalai, 2012: Moist dynamics of extended monsoon breaks over South Asia. Journal of Climate, 25, 3810–3831.Google Scholar
- Peixoto JP, Oort AH. 1992. Physics of Climate. American Institute of Physics, Springer Verlag; 520, ISBN: 0883187124.Google Scholar
- Preethi B., R. H. Kripalani, K. Krishna Kumar (2010), Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability in global coupled ocean-atmospheric models. Climate Dynamics, 35:1521–1539, doi: 10.1007/s00382-009-0657-x.
- Rajeevan, M., J. Bhate, J. D. Kale, and B. Lal, 2006: Highresolution daily gridded rainfall data for the Indian region: Analysis of break and active monsoon spell. Curr. Sci., 91, 296–306.Google Scholar
- Rajeevan, M., S. Gadgil, and J. Bhate, 2010: Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon. J. Earth Syst. Sci., 119, 229–247.Google Scholar
- Rajeevan M., C. K. Unnikrishnan, B. Preethi (2012), Evaluation of the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts of the Indian summer monsoon variability. Climate Dynamics, 38: 2257–2274, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1061-x.
- Rasmusson, E.M. and Carpenter, T.H., 1983. The relationship between eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and rainfall over India and Sri Lanka, Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 517–528.Google Scholar
- Rayner, N. A.; Parker, D. E.; Horton, E. B.; Folland, C. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Rowell, D. P.; Kent, E. C.; Kaplan, A. (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res.Vol. 108, No. D14, 4407.doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670.
- Saji,N.H., B.N.Goswami, P.N.Vinayachandran and T.Yamagata (1999), A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean, Nature, 401, 360–363, doi: 10.1038/43854.
- Schneider, U. et al (2013): GPCC’s new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0860-x.
- Shukla, J. 1987, Interannual variability of monsoons, in Monsoons, edited by J.S. Fein and P.L. Stephens, 399-464, John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
- Sikka, D.R., 1980. Some aspects of the large-scale fluctuations of summer monsoon rainfall over India in relation to fluctuations in the planetary and regional scale circulation parameters. Proc. Ind. Acad. Sci. (Earth. Planet. Sci.), 89, 179–195.Google Scholar
- Sikka, D. R., and S. Gadgil, 1980: On maximum cloud zone and ITCZ over Indian longitude during the southwest monsoon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1840–1853.Google Scholar
- Smith, T.M., and R.W. Reynolds, 2004: Improved Extended Reconstruction of SST (1854-1997). Journal of Climate, 17, 2466–2477.Google Scholar
- Trenberth, K. E., 1999: Atmospheric moisture recycling: Role of advection and local evaporation. J. Climate, 12, 1368–1381.Google Scholar
- Uppala, S. M., P. W. Kallberg, A. J. Simmons, U. Andrae, V. da Costa Bechtold, M. Fiorino, J. K. Gibson, J. Haseler, A. Hernandez, G. A. Kelly, X. Li, K. Onogi, S. Saarinen, N. Sokka, R. P. Allan, E. Andersson, K. Arpe, M. A. Balmaseda, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, S. Caires, F. Chevallier, A. Dethof, M. Dragosavac, M. Fisher, M. Fuentes, S. Hagemann, E. Holm, B. J. Hoskins, L. Isaksen, P. A. E. M. Janssen, R. Jenne, A. P. McNally, J. -F. Mahfouf, J. J. Morcrette, N. A. Rayner, R. W. Saunders, P. Simon, A. Sterl, K. E. Trenberth, A. Untch, D. Vasiljevic, P. Viterbo, and J. Woollen, 2005: The ERA-40 reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961–3012.Google Scholar
- Varikoden H, Preethi B. 2012. Wet and dry years of Indian summer monsoon and its relation with Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures. Int. J. Climatol. 33: 1761–1771, doi: 10.1002/joc.3547.
- Walker, G.T., 1918: Correlation in seasonal variation of weather. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 44, 223–224.Google Scholar
- Walker, G.T., 1923: Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, VIII. A preliminary study of world weather. Mem. India Meteorol. Dept., 4, 53–84.Google Scholar
- Walker, G.T., 1924: Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, IX. A further study of world weather. Mem. India Meteorol. Dept., 24(9), 275–333.Google Scholar
- Webster, P.J., V.O. Magana, T.N. Palmer, J. Shukla, R.A. Tomas, M. Yanai and T. Yasunari, 1998: Monsoons: Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14,451–14,510.Google Scholar
- Xie, P., and P.A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: a 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539–2558.Google Scholar
- Yasunari, T., 1990: Impact of Indian monsoon on the coupled atmosphere/ocean systems in the tropical Pacific. Meteor. & Atmos. Phys., 44, 29–41.Google Scholar