Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 172, Issue 10, pp 2533–2544 | Cite as

Distribution of Earthquake Interevent Times in Northeast India and Adjoining Regions

  • Sumanta PasariEmail author
  • Onkar Dikshit


This study analyzes earthquake interoccurrence times of northeast India and its vicinity from eleven probability distributions, namely exponential, Frechet, gamma, generalized exponential, inverse Gaussian, Levy, lognormal, Maxwell, Pareto, Rayleigh, and Weibull distributions. Parameters of these distributions are estimated from the method of maximum likelihood estimation, and their respective asymptotic variances as well as confidence bounds are calculated using Fisher information matrices. Three model selection criteria namely the Chi-square criterion, the maximum likelihood criterion, and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov minimum distance criterion are used to compare model suitability for the present earthquake catalog (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010). It is observed that gamma, generalized exponential, and Weibull distributions provide the best fitting, while exponential, Frechet, inverse Gaussian, and lognormal distributions provide intermediate fitting, and the rest, namely Levy, Maxwell Pareto, and Rayleigh distributions fit poorly to the present data. The conditional probabilities for a future earthquake and related conditional probability curves are presented towards the end of this article.


Northeast India Probability distributions Fisher information matrix Earthquake recurrence 



We are extremely grateful to three anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions which helped in improving our work. We are also thankful to Dr. A. Kijko, the editor, PAAG, for his important suggestions. The first author [S.P.] acknowledges the financial support from the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), New Delhi.


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© Springer Basel 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringIndian Institute of Technology KanpurKanpurIndia

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