Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 172, Issue 8, pp 2139–2155 | Cite as

Magnitude Estimation for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake Based on Ground Motion Prediction Equations

  • Attieh Eshaghi
  • Kristy F. Tiampo
  • Hadi Ghofrani
  • Gail M. Atkinson
Article

Abstract

This study investigates whether real-time strong ground motion data from seismic stations could have been used to provide an accurate estimate of the magnitude of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. Ultimately, such an estimate could be used as input data for a tsunami forecast and would lead to more robust earthquake and tsunami early warning. We collected the strong motion accelerograms recorded by borehole and free-field (surface) Kiban Kyoshin network stations that registered this mega-thrust earthquake in order to perform an off-line test to estimate the magnitude based on ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). GMPEs for peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity (PGV) from a previous study by Eshaghi et al. in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 103. (2013) derived using events with moment magnitude (M) ≥ 5.0, 1998–2010, were used to estimate the magnitude of this event. We developed new GMPEs using a more complete database (1998–2011), which added only 1 year but approximately twice as much data to the initial catalog (including important large events), to improve the determination of attenuation parameters and magnitude scaling. These new GMPEs were used to estimate the magnitude of the Tohoku-Oki event. The estimates obtained were compared with real time magnitude estimates provided by the existing earthquake early warning system in Japan. Unlike the current operational magnitude estimation methods, our method did not saturate and can provide robust estimates of moment magnitude within ~100 s after earthquake onset for both catalogs. It was found that correcting for average shear-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (\( V_{{{\text{s}}_{30} }} \)) improved the accuracy of magnitude estimates from surface recordings, particularly for magnitude estimates of PGV (Mpgv). The new GMPEs also were used to estimate the magnitude of all earthquakes in the new catalog with at least 20 records. Results show that the magnitude estimate from PGV values using borehole recordings had the smallest standard deviation among the estimated magnitudes and produced more stable and robust magnitude estimates. This suggests that incorporating borehole strong ground-motion records immediately available after the occurrence of large earthquakes can provide robust and accurate magnitude estimation.

Keywords

Earthquake early warning system Ground motion prediction equation Magnitude estimation Tohoku-Oki earthquake 

List of symbols

M

Moment magnitude

GMPE

Ground motion prediction equation

PGA

Peak ground acceleration

PGV

Peak ground velocity

Mpga

Magnitude estimation using PGA values

Mpgv

Magnitude estimation using PGV values

\( V_{{{\text{s}}_{30} }} \)

Time averaged shear-wave velocity over top 30 m

OT

The time of origin of an earthquake

EEW

Earthquake early warning system

References

  1. Abercrombie, R. E. (1997). Near-surface attenuation and site effects from comparison of surface and deep borehole recordings, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 87, 731–744.Google Scholar
  2. Allen, M., P. Gasparini, O. Kamigaichi, and M. Bose (2009). The status of earthquake early warning around the world: An introductory overview, Seismol. Res. Lett. 80, 682–693. doi:10.1785/gssrl.80.5.682.
  3. Aochi, H. and S. Ide (2011). Conceptual multi-scale dynamic rupture model for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 63, 761–765.Google Scholar
  4. Boore, D. (2003). Simulation of ground motion using the stochastic method. Puer Appl. Geophys. 160, 636–676.Google Scholar
  5. Boore, D. M. and G. M. Atkinson (2008). Ground-motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.01 s and 10.0 s, Earthquake Spectra 24, 99–138.Google Scholar
  6. Borcherdt, R.D. (1994). Estimates of site-dependent response spectra for design (methodology and justification), Earthquake Spectra, EERI 10, 617–653.Google Scholar
  7. DeMets, C., R. Gordon, and D. F. Argus (2010). Geologically current plate motions, Geophyscal Journal International 181, 1–80.Google Scholar
  8. Doi, K (2011). The operation and performance of earthquake early warnings by the Japan Meteorological Agency, Soil Dynam. Earthq. Eng. 31,119–126, doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2010.06.009.
  9. Eshaghi, A., K. F. Tiampo, H. Ghofrani, G. M. Atkinson (2013). Using Borehole Records to Estimate Magnitude for Earthquake and Tsunami Early-Warning Systems, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 103. doi:10.1785/0120120319.
  10. Ghofrani, H., G. M. Atkinson and K. Goda (2013). Implications of the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku Japan earthquake for the treatment of site effects in large earthquakes, Bull. Earthquake Eng. 11:171–203. doi:10.1007/s10518-012-9413-4.
  11. Hayes, G. P. (2011). Rapid source characterization of the 2011 Mw 9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 63, 529–534.Google Scholar
  12. Hideo, A., and S. Ide (2011). Conceptual multi-scale dynamic rupture model for the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Earth Planets Space, 63, 761–765.Google Scholar
  13. Horiuchi, S., H. Nrgishi, K. Abe, A. Kaminuma, and Y. Fujinawa, (2005). An automatic processing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95, 708–718.Google Scholar
  14. Hoshiba, M., O. Kamigaichi, M. S. Tsukada, and N. Hamada (2008). Earthquake Early Warning starts nationwide in Japan, EOS Trans. AGU, 89, 73–74.Google Scholar
  15. Hoshiba, Y., K. Iwakiri, N. Hayashimoto, T. Shimoyama, K. Hirano, Y. Yamada, Y. Ishigaki, and H. Kikuta (2011). Outline of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (M 9.0) Earthquake Early Warning and observed seismic intensity, Earth Planets Space, 63, 547–551.Google Scholar
  16. Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (2011). (Crustal Deformation and Fault Model obtained from GEONET data analysis). Last accessed http://www.gsi.go.jp/cais/topic110422-index-e.html.
  17. Japan Meteorological Agency, (2011). Retrieved from http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/EEW/kaisetsu/joho/20110311144640/content/content_out.html, last accessed July, 2013.
  18. Japan Meteorological Agency, (2013). Retrieved from http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/eq/eng/fig/tsunamiinfo.html, last accessed July, 2013.
  19. Kamigaichi, O., M. Saito, K. Doi, T. Matsumori, S. Tsukada, K. Takeda, T. himoyama, K. Nakamura, M. Kiyomoto, and Y. Watanabe (2009). Earthquake early warning in Japan: Warning the general public and future prospects, Seismol. Res. Lett. 80, 717–726.Google Scholar
  20. Kanamori, H. (2005). Real-time seismology and earthquake damage mitigation, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 33, 195–214.Google Scholar
  21. Lin, T., and Y. M. Wu (2010). Magnitude determination using strong ground motion attenuation in earthquake early warning, Geophys. Res. Lett. 7, L07304. doi:10.1029/2010GL042502.
  22. Lin, T., Y. M. Wu, D. Chen, N. Hsiao and C. Chang (2011). Magnitude Estimation in Earthquake Early Warning for the 2010 JiaSian, Taiwan, Earthquake, Seismol. Res. Lett. 82(2), 201–206.Google Scholar
  23. Macias, M., G. M. Atkinson, and D. Motazedian (2008). Ground-motion attenuation, source, and site effects for the 26 September 2003 M8.1 Tokachi-Oki earthquake sequence, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98, 4, 1947–1963. doi:10.1785/0120070130.
  24. Meng, L., I. Asaf and J.P. Ampuero (2011). A window into the complexity of the 2011 M w 9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, Geophy. Res. Lett. 38(7). doi:10.1029/2011GL048118.
  25. Mori, N., T. Takahashi, T. Yasuda, and H. Yanagisawa (2011). Survey of 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami inundation and run‐up, Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L00G14. doi:10.1029/2011GL049210.
  26. Nakamura, Y. (1998). On the urgent earthquake detection and alarm system (UrEDAS). In Proceedings of the 9th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering VII, 673–678.Google Scholar
  27. Okada, Y. (2011). Preliminary report of the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake. http://www.bosai.go.jp/e/pdf/Preliminary_report110328.pdf, last accessed May 2013.
  28. Peng Z., C. Aiken, D. Kilb, D. R. Shelly, and B. Enescu (2012). Listening to the 2011 Magnitude 9.0 Tohoku –Oki, Japan, Earthquake, Seismol. Res. Let. 83, 287-293.Google Scholar
  29. Wang, D., and J. Mori (2011). Rupture process of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (M w 9.0) as imaged with back-projection of teleseismic P-Wave, Earth Planets Space, 63, 603–607.Google Scholar
  30. Wu, Y. M., and L. Zhao (2006). Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P‐wave amplitude in earthquake early warning, Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L16312. doi:10.1029/2006GL026871.
  31. Yamada, M., and J. Mori (2009). Using T c to estimate magnitude for earthquake early warning and effects of near-field terms, J. Geophys. Res. 114, B05301. doi:10.1029/2008JB006080.
  32. Yoshida, K., K. Miyakoshi and K. Irikura (2011). Source process of the 2011 off the pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake inferred from waveform inversion with long-period strong-motion records. Earth Planets Space, 63, 577–582.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Basel 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Attieh Eshaghi
    • 1
  • Kristy F. Tiampo
    • 1
  • Hadi Ghofrani
    • 1
  • Gail M. Atkinson
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Earth SciencesWestern UniversityLondonCanada

Personalised recommendations