Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project
- 562 Downloads
A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0–6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.
KeywordsNowcast olympic snow mountain weather forecast
The authors wish to thank the support of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and specifically the Nowcasting Working Group of WWRP. This project would not have been conducted without the support of Al Wallace and Gilbert Brunet of Environment Canada. Many staff at the Pacific Storm Prediction Centre and at the Canadian Meteorological Centre also provided support. Walter Dabberdt, Herb Winston and George Frederick of Vaisala provided valuable advice, partial funding of a Visiting Fellow, and participated in our planning meetings. Doug Forseth and Doug Mcfarlane of Whistler-Blackcomb Mountain provided key support without which the installations could not have proceeded smoothly. Anton Horvath and Jan Davies, snow avalanche forecasters at Whistler-Blackcomb, provided on-site support and valuable advice about the weather on Whistler. Bill Scott, George Davies, Frank Mirecki, Drew Pawley and Patricia Wong installed, maintained and supported the Pacific Region installations. Robert Reed, Michael Harwood, Steve Bacic, Ron Ruff, Karen Haynes and Ka Sung technically supported the SNOW-V10 installations. Ron Stewart was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The authors would like to thank two anonymous reviews for their helpful comments.
- Anderson-Berry, L., Keenan, T., Bally, J. Pielke, R., Jr., Leigh, R., and King, D. (2004), The societal, social and economic impacts of the World Weather Research Programme Sydney 2000 forecast demonstration project (WWRP S2000 FDP). Weather and Forecasting, 19, 168–178.Google Scholar
- Bailey, ME., Isaac, GA., Gultepe, I., Heckman, I., and Reid, J. (2012), Adaptive blending of model and observations for automated short range forecasting: Examples from the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0553-x.
- Benjamin SG, Devenyi D, Smirnova T, Weygandt S, Brown JM, Peckham S, Brundage K, Smith TL, Grell G, Schlatter T (2006), From the 13-km RUC to the rapid refresh. 12th Conference on aviation, range, and aerospace meteorology (ARAM), Atlanta. CD-ROM 9.1. American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA.Google Scholar
- Benjamin SG, Devenyi D, Weygandt SS, Brundage KJ, Brown JM, Grell GA, Kim D, Schwartz BE, Smirnova TG, Smith TL, Manikin GS (2004), An hourly assimilation/forecast cycle: the RUC. Mon. Weather. Rev., 132: 495–518.Google Scholar
- Bellon, A., and Austin, GL. (1978), The evaluation of two years of real-time operation of a short-term precipitation forecasting procedure (SHARP). J. Appl. Meteor., 17, 1778–1787.Google Scholar
- Bellon A., Austin G.L. (1986), The accuracy of short-term radar rainfall forecasts. J. of Hydrology, 70: 35–49.Google Scholar
- Benoit, R., Schär, C., Binder, P., Chamberland, S., Davies, HC., Desgagne, M., Girard, C., Keil, C., Kouwen, N., Lüthi, D., Maric, D., Müller, E., Pellerin, P., Schmidli, J., Schubiger, F., Schwierz, C., Sprenger, M., Walser, A., Willemse, S., Yu, W., and Zala, E. (2002), The real-time ultrafinescale forecast support during the special observing period of the MAP. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83, 85–109.Google Scholar
- Bernier, N.B., Bélair, S., Bilodeau, B., and Tong, L. (2011), Near-surface and land surface forecast system of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic games. J. Hydromet., 12, 508–530.Google Scholar
- Bernier, N.B., Bélair, S., Bilodeau, B., and Tong, L. (2012), Assimilation and high resolution forecasts of surface and near surface conditions for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic and Paralympic games. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0542-0.
- Boudala, F.S., Isaac, G.A., Rasmussen, R., Cober, S.G., and Scott, B. (2012), Comparisons of snowfall measurements in complex terrain made during the 2010 winter Olympics in Vancouver. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0610-5.
- Bowler, N., Pierce, C.E., and Seed, A.W. (2006), STEPS: a probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges an extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWP. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2006), 132, 2127–2155.Google Scholar
- Carpenter, R., Shaw, B., Spencer, P., DuFran, Z., and Haugland, M. (2009), Advanced NWP for short-term wind power and precipitation forecasting. Extended abstracts, WMO symposium on nowcasting, Whistler, BC, Canada.Google Scholar
- Chen, C., Wang, D., Liu, Y., Zhang, Z., Feng, T., Du, J., Wang, J., Isaac, G.A., Mailhot, J., Milbrandt, J.A., McTaggart-Cowan, R. (2012), Comparison of high- and low-resolution regional models’ performances over complex terrain during the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. Pure and Applied Geophysics.Google Scholar
- Doyle, C., (2012), The impact of weather forecasts of various lead-times on snowmaking decisions made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0609-y.
- Ebert, E.E., Wilson, L.J., Brown, B.G., Brooks, H.E., Bally, J., and Jaeneke, M. (2004), Verification of nowcasts from the WWRP Sydney 2000 forecast demonstration project. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 73–96.Google Scholar
- Fillion, L., Tanguay, M., Lapalme, E., Denis, B., Desgagne, M., Lee, V., Ek, N., Liu, Z., Lajoie, M., Caron, J.-F., Pagé, C., (2010), The Canadian regional data assimilation and forecasting system. Wea. Forecast, 25, 1645–1669.Google Scholar
- Golding, B.W. (1998), Nimrod: a system for generating automated very short range forecasts. Meteorol. Appl., 5, 1–16.Google Scholar
- Gultepe, I., Pearson, G., Milbrandt, J.A., Hansen. B., Platnick, S., Taylor, P., Gordon, M., Oakley, J.P., and Cober, S.G. (2009), The fog remote sensing and modeling field project. AMS Bulletin. 90, 341–359.Google Scholar
- Gultepe, I., Isaac, G.A., Joe, P., Kucera, P., Theriault, J., and Fisico, T. (2012), Roundhouse (RND) Mountain top research site: measurements and uncertainties for alpine weather conditions. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0582-5.
- Haiden, T., Pistotnik, G. (2009), Intensity-dependent parameterization of elevation effects in precipitation analysis. Adv. Geosci., 20, 33–38.Google Scholar
- Haiden, T., Kann, A., Wittmann, C., Pistotnik, G., Bica, B., Gruber, C. (2011), The Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) system and its validation over the Eastern Alpine region. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 166–183.Google Scholar
- Haiden, T., Kann, A., and Pistotnik, G. (2012), Nowcasting with INCA during SNOW-V10. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0547-8.
- Huang, L.X., Isaac, G.A., and Sheng, G. (2012a), Integrating NWP forecasts and observation data to improve nowcasting accuracy. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 938–953. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00125.1.
- Huang, L.X., Isaac, G.A., and Sheng, G. (2012b), A new integrated weighted model in SNOW-V10: Verification of continuous variables. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0548-7.
- Huang, L.X., Isaac, G.A., and Sheng, G. (2012c), A new integrated weighted model in SNOW-V10: Verification of categorical variables. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0549-6.
- Isaac, G.A., Bailey, M., Cober, S.G., Donaldson, N. Driedger, N., Glazer, A., Gultepe, I., Hudak, D., Korolev, A., Reid, J., Rodriguez, P., Strapp, J.W., and Fabry, F. (2006), Airport vicinity icing and snow advisor. AIAA 44th aerospace sci meeting and exhibit, Reno Nevada, 9–12 Jan 2006, AIAA-2006-1219.Google Scholar
- Isaac, G.A., Bailey, M., Boudala, F.S., Cober, S.G., Crawford, R.W., Donaldson, N., Gultepe, I., Hansen, B., Heckman, I., Huang, L.X., Ling, A., Mailhot, J., Milbrandt, J.A., Reid, J., and Fournier, M. (2012), The Canadian airport nowcasting system (CAN-Now). In press, Meteorological Applications. doi: 10.1002/met.1342.
- Joe, P., Doyle, C., Wallace, A., Cober, S.G., Scott, B., Isaac, G.A., Smith, T., Mailhot, J., Snyder, B., Belair, S., Jansen, Q., and Denis, B. (2010), Weather services, science advances, and the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic winter games. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 91, 31–36.Google Scholar
- Joe, P., Scott, B., Doyle, C., Isaac, G.A., Gultepe, I., Forsyth, D., Cober, S.G., Campos, E., Heckman, I., Donaldson, N., Hudak, D., Rasmussen, R., Stewart R.E., Thériault, J.M., Carmichael, H., Bailey, M., and Boudala, F.S. (2012), The monitoring network of the Vancouver 2010 Olympics. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0588-z.
- Keenan, T., Joe, P., Wilson, J., Collier, C., Golding, B., Burgess, D., May, P., Pierce, C., Bally, J., Crook, A., Seed, A., Sills, D., Berry, L., Potts, R., Bell, I., Fox, N., Ebert, E., Eilts, M., O’Loughlin, K., Webb, R., Carbone, R., Browning, K., Roberts, R., and Mueller, C. (2003), The Sydney 2000 world weather research programme forecast demonstration project: overview and current status. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 84, 1041–1054.Google Scholar
- Kiktev D., and Co authors, (2012), Development of weather forecasting systems for winter Olympic Games “Sochi-2014”, in preparation. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology.Google Scholar
- Li, X., Charron, M., Spacek, L., and Candille, G. (2008), A regional ensemble prediction system based on the moist targeted singular vectors and stochastic parameter perturbations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 443–462.Google Scholar
- Mailhot, J., Bélair, S., Lefaivre, L., Bilodeau, B., Desgagné, M., Girard, C., Glazer, A., Leduc, A.-M., Méthot, A., Patoine, A., Plante, A., Rahill, A., Robinson, T., Talbot, D., Tremblay, A., Vaillancourt, P., Zadra1, A., and Qaddouri, A. (2006), The 15-km version of the Canadian regional forecast system. Atmos-Ocean, 44, 133–149.Google Scholar
- Mailhot, J., Bélair, S., Charron, M., Doyle, C., Joe, P., Abrahamowicz, M., Bernier, N.B., Denis, B., Erfani, A., Frenette, R., Giguère, A., Isaac, G.A., McLennan, N., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Milbrandt, J., and Tong, L. (2010), Environment Canada’s experimental numerical weather prediction systems for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic games. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 91, 1073–1085.Google Scholar
- Mailhot, J., Milbrandt, J.A., Giguère, A., McTaggart-Cown, R., Erfani, A., Denis,B., Glazer, A., and Vallée, M. (2012), An experimental high-resolution forecast system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0520-6.
- Milbrandt, J.A., Theriault, J., and Mo, R. (2012), Modeling the phase transition associated with melting snow in a 1D kinematic framework: sensitivity to the microphysics. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0552-y.
- Mo, R., Joe, P., Isaac, G.A., Gultepe, I., Rasmussen, R., Milbrandt, J., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Mailhot, J., Brugman, M., Smith, T., and Scott, B. (2012a), Mid-mountain clouds at Whistler during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0540-2.
- Mo, R., Joe P.I., Doyle, C., and Whitfield, P.H. (2012b), Verification of an ENSO-based long-range prediction of anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0523-3.
- Pierce, C.E., Ebert, E., Seed, A.W., Sleigh, M., Collier, C.G., Fox, N.I., Donaldson, N., Wilson, J.W.W., Roberts, R., and Mueller, C.K. (2004), The nowcasting of precipitation during Sydney 2000: an appraisal of the QPF algorithms. Weather and Forecasting, 19, 7–21.Google Scholar
- Rasmussen, R., Dixon, M., Hage, F., Cole, J., Wade, C., Tuttle, J., McGettigan, S., Carty, T., Stevenson, L., Fellner, W., Knight, S., Karplus, E., and Rehak, N. (2001), Weather support to deicing decision making (WSDDM): a winter weather nowcasting system. Bull. Amer. Meteriol. Soc., 82, 579–595.Google Scholar
- Rotach, M.W., Ambrosetti, P., Appenzeller, C., Arpagaus, M., Fontannaz, L., Fundel, F., Germann, U., Hering, A., Liniger, M.A., Stoll, M., Walser, A., Ament, F., Bauer, H.-S., Behrendt, A., Wulfmeyer, V., Bouttier, F., Seity, Y., Buzzi, A., Davolio, S., Corazza, M., Denhard, M., Dorninger, M., Gorgas, T., Frick, J., Hegg, C., Zappa, M., Keil, C., Volkert, H., Marsigli, C., Montaini, A., McTaggart-Cowan, R., Mylne, K., Ranzi, R., Richard, E., Rossa, A., Santos-Muñoz, D., Schär, C., Staudinger, M., Wang, Y., Werhahn, J. (2009), MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of weather forecast quality in the alpine region. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 90, 1321–1336.Google Scholar
- Schuur, T. J., Ryzhkov, A.V., Forsyth, D.E., Zhang, P., Reeves, H.D. (2012), Cloud observations with NSSL’s X-band polarimetric radar during the SNOW-V10 campaign. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0569-2.
- Stoelinga, M.T., Hobbs, P.V., Mass, C.F., Locatelli, J.D., Colle, B.A., Houze R.A., Jr., Rangno, A.L., Bond, N.A., Smull, B.F., Rasmussen, R.M., Thompson, G., and Colman, B.R. (2003), Improvement of microphysical parameterization through observational Verification Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteriol. Soc., 84, 1807–1826.Google Scholar
- Su, D., Wang, J., Wang, Y., and Liang, F. (2007), A brief introduction of B08FDP for Beijing 2008 Olympics. In: 33rd conference on radar meteorology, 6–10 Aug 2007, Caines, Australia, paper 5.2 extended abstract.Google Scholar
- Teakles, A., Mo, R., Joe, P.I., Dierking, C.F., Emond, C., and McLennan, N. (2012), Realizing user-relevant conceptual model for the ski jump venue of the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0544-y.
- Thériault, J.M., Rasmussen, R., Smith, T., Mo, R., Milbrandt, J.A., Brugman, M.M., Joe, P., Isaac, G., Mailhot, J., and Denis, B. (2012a), A case study of processes impacting precipitation phase and intensity during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics. Wea. Forecasting. doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00114.1, in press.
- Thériault, J.M., Rasmussen, K.L., Fisico, T., Stewart, R.E., Joe, P., Gultepe, I., Clément M., Isaac, G.A. (2012b), Weather observations along Whistler Mountain in five storms. Pure and Applied Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0590-5.
- Turner, B.J., Zawadzki, I., and Germann, U. (2004), Predictability of precipitation from continental radar images. Part III: operational nowcasting implementation (MAPLE). J. Appl. Meteriol., 43, 231–248.Google Scholar