Optimization of Seismicity-Based Forecasts
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In this paper, the extent to which some improvement can be made in seismicity-based earthquake forecasting methods are examined. Two methods that employ the statistics and locations for past smaller earthquakes to determine the location of future large earthquakes, the pattern informatics (PI) index and the Benioff relative intensity (RI), are employed for both global and regional forecasting. Two approaches for forecast parameter estimation, the TM metric and threshold optimization, are applied to these methods and the results evaluated. Application of the TM metric allows for estimation of both the training and forecast time intervals as well as the minimum magnitude cutoff and spatial discretization. The threshold optimization scheme is employed in order to formulate a binary forecast that maximizes the Pierce’s skill score. The combined application of these techniques is successful in forecasting those large events that occurred in Haiti, Chile, and California in 2010, on both global and regional scales.
KeywordsEarthquake forecasting earthquake hazard forecast optimization
The work of K. F. Tiampo was supported by the NSERC and Aon Benfield/ICLR Industrial Research Chair in Earthquake Hazard Assessment. The work of R. Shcherbakov was supported by an NSERC Discovery Grant 355632-2008. Several images were plotted with the help of GMT software developed and supported by Paul Wessel and Walter H.F. Smith.
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