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Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 167, Issue 3, pp 277–321 | Cite as

Seismic Empirical Relations for the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, and their Usefulness for Seismic Risk Assessment

  • Noureddine Beghoul
  • Jean-Luc Chatelain
  • Mohamed-Salah Boughacha
  • Hadj Benhallou
  • Rida Dadou
  • Amira Mezioud-Saïch
Article

Abstract

Seismic events that occurred during the past half century in the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, are used to establish fundamental seismic empirical relations, tying earthquake magnitude to source parameters (seismic moment, fault plane area, maximal displacement along the fault, and fault plane length). Those empirical relations applied to the overall seismicity from 1716 to present are used to transform the magnitude (or intensity) versus time distribution into (1) cumulative seismic moment versus time, and (2) cumulative displacements versus time. Both of those parameters as well as the computed seismic moment rate, the strain rate along the Tellian Atlas strike, and various other geological observations are consistent with the existence, in the Tellian Atlas, of three distinct active tectonic blocks. These blocks are seismically decoupled from each other, thus allowing consideration of the seismicity as occurring in three different distinct seismotectonic blocks. The cumulative displacement versus time from 1900 to present for each of these tectonic blocks presents a remarkable pattern of recurrence time intervals and precursors associated with major earthquakes. Indeed, most major earthquakes that occurred in these three blocks might have been predicted in time. The Tellian Atlas historical seismicity from the year 881 to the present more substantially confirms these observations, in particular for the western block of the Tellian Atlas. Theoretical determination of recurrence time intervals for the Tellian Atlas large earthquakes using Molnar and Kostrov formalisms is also consistent with these observations. Substantial observations support the fact that the western and central Tellian Atlas are currently at very high seismic risk, in particular the central part. Indeed, most of the accumulated seismic energy in the central Tellian Atlas crust has yet to be released, despite the occurrence of the recent destructive May 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M w = 6.8). The accumulated seismic energy is equivalent to a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. In situ stress and geodetic measurements, as well as other geophysical field data measurements, are now required to practically check the validity of those observations.

Keywords

Atlas fault belt system Seismic moment rate Time predictable models Strain rate Fault rupture characteristics Focal mechanisms Molnar, and Kostrov formalisms 

Notes

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank M. Barazangi of Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA and an anonymous reviewer who have read our manuscript and brought extremely helpful and useful suggestions that have contributed to significantly enhance the overall structure of this work. We would like to thank Mustapha Meghraoui of IPGP of Strasbourg, France for having very carefully read our manuscript and having brought useful and helpful suggestions. I express my great thanks to H. Benhallou the Chairman of the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Sciences and Technology Houari Boumediene for his support and assistance in my initial stage in his Institute after more than twenty-two years abroad. Thanks also to the administrative team of the Institute and my colleagues for their curiosity, their kindness and for the useful and interesting scientific discussions. We thank my students Cheikh Moad and Saïch Boualem for their contributions to the collection of various data from diverse internet sites and catalogues.

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Copyright information

© Birkhäuser Verlag Basel/Switzerland 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Noureddine Beghoul
    • 1
  • Jean-Luc Chatelain
    • 2
    • 3
  • Mohamed-Salah Boughacha
    • 1
  • Hadj Benhallou
    • 1
  • Rida Dadou
    • 1
  • Amira Mezioud-Saïch
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute of Earth SciencesUniversity of Sciences and Technology Houari BoumedieneAlgiersAlgeria
  2. 2.Laboratoire de Géophysique Interne et Tectonophysique (LGIT)CNRS: UMR5559-IRD: UR157-LCPC-OSUG-INSU-Université de Savoie, Université Joseph FourierGrenoble IFrance
  3. 3.Centre National de Recherche Appliquée en Génie Parasimique (CGS)AlgiersAlgeria

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