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Pure and Applied Geophysics

, Volume 164, Issue 2–3, pp 577–592 | Cite as

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

  • Tadashi AnnakaEmail author
  • Kenji Satake
  • Tsutomu Sakakiyama
  • Ken Yanagisawa
  • Nobuo Shuto
Article

Abstract

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.

Keywords

Logic-tree approach probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis tsunami hazard curve epistemic uncertainty aleatory uncertainty 

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Copyright information

© Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel, 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Tadashi Annaka
    • 1
    Email author
  • Kenji Satake
    • 2
  • Tsutomu Sakakiyama
    • 3
  • Ken Yanagisawa
    • 4
  • Nobuo Shuto
    • 5
  1. 1.Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., LtdTokyoJapan
  2. 2.Geological Survey of Japan, AISTTsukubaJapan
  3. 3.Central Research Institute of Electric Power IndustryAbikoJapan
  4. 4.Tokyo Electric Power CompanyTokyoJapan
  5. 5.Advanced Research Institute for the Sciences and HumanitiesNihon UniversityTokyoJapan

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