Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model
In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion is an irreversible process, a memory function which can recall the observation data in the past is introduced, moreover, a special concept of self-memorization of the atmospheric motion is proposed, and a so-called self-memorization equation of the atmospheric motion has been derived. Based on the self-memorization principle, a numerical model for decadal forecast is established by means of the thermodynamic equation and the precipitation equation. The verification scores of the hindcasts of the model in the period from I to 12 years are much higher than that of monthly weather forecasts at present.
Key wordsNumerical model Climatic prediction Memory
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- Cao H. X., 1993: Self-memorization equation in atmospheric motion. Science in China, Series B, 36, 845–855.Google Scholar
- Cao H. X., and Zhu Z. X., 1995: Self-memorization and predictability of atmospheric motion, WMO I TD-No.652, 13–18.Google Scholar
- Cao H. X., Feng G. L., Wei F. Y., and Gao X., 1999: Self-memorial model of climate prediction and its preliminary application. Chinese J. of Computational Physics, 16(2), 206–210.Google Scholar
- Cao H. X, Feng G. L., and Wei F. Y., 2000: Modeling of a regional climate prediction. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 58(2), 159–167.Google Scholar
- Chen G. Y., and Zhao Z. G., 1998: The evaluation method of short-term climate prediction and its operating initial stages. Q. J. Appl. Meteor. 9(2), 178–185.Google Scholar
- Chou J. F., 1974: Problem of using past data in numerical weather prediction. Scientia Sinica, 17(6), 814–829 (in Chinese).Google Scholar
- ECMWF 1987: ECMWF forecast mode~ by ECMWF research department, Reading.Google Scholar
- Tang M. C., Zhong Q., and Wu S. J., 1982: A thermodynamic model of long-term precipitation prediction. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 40(1), 49–58.Google Scholar