Advertisement

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

, Volume 18, Issue 5, pp 701–709 | Cite as

Prediction of Precipitation during Summer Monsoon with Self-memorial Model

  • Feng Guolin
  • Cao Hongxing
  • Gao Xinquan
  • Dong Wenjie
  • Chou Jifan
Article

Abstract

In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion is an irreversible process, a memory function which can recall the observation data in the past is introduced, moreover, a special concept of self-memorization of the atmospheric motion is proposed, and a so-called self-memorization equation of the atmospheric motion has been derived. Based on the self-memorization principle, a numerical model for decadal forecast is established by means of the thermodynamic equation and the precipitation equation. The verification scores of the hindcasts of the model in the period from I to 12 years are much higher than that of monthly weather forecasts at present.

Key words

Numerical model Climatic prediction Memory 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Cao H. X., 1993: Self-memorization equation in atmospheric motion. Science in China, Series B, 36, 845–855.Google Scholar
  2. Cao H. X., and Zhu Z. X., 1995: Self-memorization and predictability of atmospheric motion, WMO I TD-No.652, 13–18.Google Scholar
  3. Cao H. X., Feng G. L., Wei F. Y., and Gao X., 1999: Self-memorial model of climate prediction and its preliminary application. Chinese J. of Computational Physics, 16(2), 206–210.Google Scholar
  4. Cao H. X, Feng G. L., and Wei F. Y., 2000: Modeling of a regional climate prediction. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 58(2), 159–167.Google Scholar
  5. Chen G. Y., and Zhao Z. G., 1998: The evaluation method of short-term climate prediction and its operating initial stages. Q. J. Appl. Meteor. 9(2), 178–185.Google Scholar
  6. Chou J. F., 1974: Problem of using past data in numerical weather prediction. Scientia Sinica, 17(6), 814–829 (in Chinese).Google Scholar
  7. ECMWF 1987: ECMWF forecast mode~ by ECMWF research department, Reading.Google Scholar
  8. Tang M. C., Zhong Q., and Wu S. J., 1982: A thermodynamic model of long-term precipitation prediction. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 40(1), 49–58.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2001

Authors and Affiliations

  • Feng Guolin
    • 1
  • Cao Hongxing
    • 2
  • Gao Xinquan
    • 3
  • Dong Wenjie
    • 4
  • Chou Jifan
    • 3
  1. 1.Mathematics and Physics CollegeYangzhou UniversityYangzhouChina
  2. 2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science 46 BaishiqiaoluBeijingChina
  3. 3.Department of Meteorological ScienceLanzhou UniversityLanzhouChina
  4. 4.Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

Personalised recommendations