Journal of Population Research

, Volume 24, Issue 1, pp 119–131 | Cite as

Future life expectancy in Australia, Europe, Japan and North America

Research Note

Abstract

Human life expectancy has risen in most developed countries over the last century, causing the observed demographic shifts. Babel, Bomsdorf and Schmidt (forthcoming) introduce a stochastic mortality model using panel data procedures which distinguishes between a common time effect and a common age effect of mortality evolvement. Using this mortality model, the present paper provides forecasts of future life expectancy for 17 countries divided into 12 regions: Australia, Alps, Bene, Canada, England and Wales, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Scandinavia and the United States of America. We consider (traditional) period life expectancies as well as cohort life expectancies, the latter being a more realistic approach but less common. It turns out that a continuing increase of life expectancy is expected in all considered countries. Further, we show that the probabilistic uncertainty of forecast life expectancies is different if either period life expectancies or cohort life expectancies are considered and, moreover, the uncertainty increases substantially if the error of parameter estimation is included.

Keywords

life expectancy life table stochastic mortality forecasts cohort analysis period analysis 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bernhard Babel
    • 1
  • Eckart Bomsdorf
    • 1
  • Rafael Schmidt
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Economic and Social StatisticsUniversity of CologneCologneGermany

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