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Journal of Population Research

, Volume 20, Issue 1, pp 125–141 | Cite as

The end of population growth in Asia

  • Wolfgang LutzEmail author
  • Sergei Scherbow
  • Warren Sanderson
Article

Abstract

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is expected to almost double in population and South Asia will become by far the world’s most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, the Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in population size and experience extreme population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 60 and above in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach 50 per cent of the total population (with the 95 per cent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 per cent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of ageing, with the proportion aged 60 and above expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 per cent in 2000 to 39 per cent in 2100.

Keywords

population projections probability Asia fertility trends mortality trends ageing population composition population growth 

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Wolfgang Lutz
    • 1
    Email author
  • Sergei Scherbow
    • 2
  • Warren Sanderson
    • 3
  1. 1.Population ProjectInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLakenburgAustria
  2. 2.Austrian Academy of SciencesAustria
  3. 3.State University of New YorkNew YorkUSA

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