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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

, Volume 20, Issue 5, pp 755–766 | Cite as

The change of North China climate in transient simulations using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model

  • Buhe CholawEmail author
  • Ulrich Cubasch
  • Lin Yonghui
  • Ji Liren
Article

Abstract

This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to be strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidently over North China, implying a risk of flooding in the future.

Key words

North China Climate change Seasonality IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios 

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Copyright information

© Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • Buhe Cholaw
    • 1
    Email author
  • Ulrich Cubasch
    • 2
  • Lin Yonghui
    • 3
  • Ji Liren
    • 1
  1. 1.LASG, Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing
  2. 2.Meteorologisches Institut der Freien Universitaet BerlinUK
  3. 3.Institute of Severe WeatherChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing

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