American Journal of Potato Research

, Volume 80, Issue 4, pp 271–279 | Cite as

The effect of climate change on global potato production

Article

Abstract

The effect of climate change on global potato production was assessed. Potential yields were calculated with a simulation model and a grid with monthly climate data for current (1961–1990) and projected (2010–2039 and 2040–2069) conditions. The results were mapped and summarized for countries. Between 1961–1990 and 2040–2069 the global (terrestrial excluding Antarctica) average temperature is predicted to increase between 2.1 and 3.2 C, depending on the climate scenario. The temperature increase is smaller when changes are weighted by the potato area and particularly when adaptation of planting time and cultivars is considered (a predicted temperature increase between 1 and 1.4 C). For this period, global potential potato yield decreases by 18% to 32% (without adaptation) and by 9% to 18% (with adaptation). At high latitudes, global warming will likely lead to changes in the time of planting, the use of later-maturing cultivars, and a shift of the location of potato production. In many of these regions, changes in potato yield are likely to be relatively small, and sometimes positive. Shifting planting time or location is less feasible at lower latitudes, and in these regions global warming could have a strong negative effect on potato production. It is shown that heat-tolerant potato cultivars could be used to mitigate effects of global warming in (sub)tropical regions.

Additional Key Words

Adaptation heat tolerance geographic information systems GIS potential yield simulation Solanum tuberosum 

Resumen

Se estudió el efecto del cambio climático en la producción global de la patata. Los rendimientos potenciales fueron calculados con un modelo de simulación y una rejilla con datos mensuales de clima para las condiciones actuates (1961–1990) y proyectadas (2010–2039 y 2040–2069). Los resultados fueron presentados en mapas y resumidos por paises. Se predice que entre 1961–1990 y 2040–2069 la temperatura media global (en áreas terrestres excepto la Antártica) aumentará entre 2.1 y 3.2 C, dependiendo del escenario climático. El aumento de la temperatura es más pequeño cuando los cambios son ponderados con el área del cultivo de la patata y particularmente cuando se considera la adaptación de la época de siembra y de los cultivares (se predice un aumento de la temperatura entre 1 y 1.4 C). En este período, la producción potencial global de la patata disminuye de 18% al 32% (sin adaptación) y de 9% al 18% (con adaptación). En latitudes mayores, el calentamiento global podría conducir a cambios en la época de siembra, el uso de cultivares más tardíos, y cambio de los lugares donde se produce patata. En muchas de estas regiones, los cambios en la producción de la patata serían relativamente pequeños, y a veces positivo Los cambios en la época de siembra o de los lugares de producción son menos factibles en latitudes más bajas, en estas regiones el calentamiento global podría tener un fuerte efecto negativo en la producción de la patata. Se muestra que se podrian utilizar cultivares con tolerancia al calor para atenuar el efecto del calentamiento global en regiones (sub)tropicales.

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Copyright information

© Springer 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.International Potato Center (CIP)LimaPeru

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