Probability forecast of regional landslide based on numerical weather forecast

Mountain Hazards
Received:

Abstract

The regional forecast of landslide is one of the key points of hazard mitigation. It is also a hot and difficult point in research field. To solve this problem has become urgent task along with Chinese economy fast development. This paper analyzes the principle of regional landslide forecast and the factors for forecasting. The method of a combination of Information Value Model and Extension Model has been put forward to be as the forecast model. Using new result of Numerical Weather Forecast Research and that combination model, we discuss the implementation feasibility of regional landslide forecast. Finally, with the help of Geographic Information System, an operation system for southwest of China landslide forecast has been developed. It can carry out regional landslide forecast daily and has been pilot run in NMC. Since this is the first time linking theoretical research with meteorological service, further works are needed to enhance it.

Key words

hazard mitigation landslide forecast numerical weather forecast GIS 

CLC number

P 642.23 
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Copyright information

© Springer 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Mountain, Hazards and EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesChengdu, SichuanChina
  2. 2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina
  3. 3.National Meteorological CenterChina Meteorogical AdministrationBeijingChina

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