Estuaries

, Volume 27, Issue 3, pp 419–425 | Cite as

Reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico: Advice from three models

  • Donald Scavia
  • Dubravko Justic
  • Victor J. Bierman
Article

Abstract

Summer hypoxia in the bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico has received considerable scientific and policy attention because of potential ecological and economic impacts from this very large zone of low oxygen and because of the implications for management within the massive Mississippi River watershed. An assessment of its causes and consequences concluded that the almost 3-fold increase in nitrogen load to the Gulf is the primary external driver stimulating the increase in hypoxia since the middle of the last century. Results from three very different models are compared to reach the consensus that large-sclae hypoxia likely did not start in the Gulf of Mexico until the mid-1970s and that the 30% nitrogen load reduction called for in an Action Plant to reduce hypoxia, agreed to by a federal, state, and tribal task force, may not be sufficient to reach the plan’s goal. Caution is also raised for setting resource management goals without considering the long-term consequences of climate variability and change.

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Copyright information

© Estuarine Research Federation 2004

Authors and Affiliations

  • Donald Scavia
    • 1
  • Dubravko Justic
    • 2
  • Victor J. Bierman
    • 3
  1. 1.National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationSilver Spring
  2. 2.Coastal Ecology Institute and Department of Oceanography and Coastal SciencesLouisiana State UniversityBaton Rouge
  3. 3.LinnoTech, Inc.Greensboro
  4. 4.School of Natural Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of MichiganAnn Arbor

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