Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv

, Volume 119, Issue 1, pp 122–137 | Cite as

India and the second OPEC oil price shock — an economy-wide analysis

  • Sanjeev Gupta
Article

Zusammenfassung

Indien und der zweite OPEC-Ölpreisschock — Eine gesamtwirtschaftliche Analyse. — In diesem Aufsatz wird die Wirkung des zweiten ölpreisschocks auf Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Beschäftigung (und andere makroökonomische Variable) sowie die Zusammensetzung der Produktion in der indischen Volkswirtschaft untersucht. Dabei wird ein numerisch lösbares Modell des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts verwendet. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, daβ der Hauptteil des Handelsbilanzdefizits kurzfristig durch das IWF-Darlehen gedeckt ist. Langfristig dagegen müssen die Ressourcen in die Sektoren mit exportierbaren Gütern wandern, damit die Handelsbilanz ausgeglichen wird.

Résumé

L’Inde et le deuxième choc de prix pétrolier d’OPEP. — Cet article analyse les effets du deuxième choc de prix pétrolier sur le PIB, l’emploi (en addition aux autres variables macroéconomiques) et la composition de la production dans l’économie indienne en utilisant un modèle computable d’équilibre général. Les résultats indiquent que la part majeure du déficit en commerce extérieur à court terme est comblée par l’emprunt du FMI. A long terme, cependant, il faut diriger les ressources dans les secteurs des biens commercés pour équilibrer le commerce extérieur.

Resumen

India y el segundo shock de precios del petróleo de la OPEP — Un análisis global de la economia. — En este artículo se estudia el impacto del segundo shock de precios del petroleo sobre el PGB, empleo (adicionalmente a otras variables macro) y la compositión del producto en la economía de la India, empleando un modelo de equilibrio general computable. Los resultados indican que la mayor proportión del déficit comercial es cubierta en el corto plazo por el crédito del FMI. En el largo plazo, sin embargo, los recursos deben moverse hacia los sectores de bienes transables para establecer un equilibrio comercial.

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Copyright information

© Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel 1982

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  • Sanjeev Gupta

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