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Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv

, Volume 136, Issue 1, pp 84–110 | Cite as

A kalman filter-gravity equation approach to assess the trade impact of economic integration: The case of Spain, 1986–1992

  • Fernando Sanz
Articles

Abstract

A Kaiman Filter-Gravity Equation Approach to Assess the Trade Impact of Economic Integration: The Case of Spain, 1986-1992. — The main objective of this paper is to propose an alternative method for evaluating the effects that economic integration between countries has on their trade flows. The trade impact model of reference is the gravity equation and the empirical application of the methodology focuses on Spain’s incorporation into the EEC in 1986. The principal contribution consists in the dynamization of the gravity equation by means of the Kaiman filter. By way of the Kalman algorithm, we use all the preintegration information in order to predict the coefficients of the gravity equation for the subsequent years, thereby defining a more credibleantimonde.

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Zusammenfassung

Der Kalman-Filter-Gravitationsgleichungs-Ansatz zur Erfassung der Handelswirkungen einer wirtschaftlichen Integration: Der Fall Spanien von 1986–1992. — Das Hauptanliegen dieses Aufsatzes ist es, eine alternative Methode vorzuschlagen, um die Effekte einer wirtschaftlichen Integration von LÄndern auf deren Handelsströme zu ermitteln. Das verwendete Modell ist das Gravitationsmodell, und die empirische Anwendung des Modells konzentriert sich auf Spaniens Eingliederung in die EG im Jahr 1986. Der Hauptbeitrag des Aufsatzes besteht in der Dynamisierung des Gravitationsmodells mit Hilfe des Kaiman Filters. Durch den Kaiman Algorithmus werden sÄmtliche Informationen aus der Zeit vor der Integration genutzt, um die Koeffizienten der Gravitationsgleichung für die folgenden Jahre vorherzusagen. Auf diese Weise kann glaubwürdiger geschÄtzt werden, wie die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ohne die Integration verlaufen wÄre.

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© Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel 2000

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  • Fernando Sanz

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