, 14:165 | Cite as

A method to forecast the start of theBetula, Platanus andQuercus pollen seasons in North London

  • Jane Norris-Hill
Original Articles


This paper attempts the prediction of the start of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons in London, UK based on pollen sampling conducted over a 5-year period, 1987–1991. The times at which eight different thresholds of accumulated daily pollen counts (M−3) were passed were correlated against heat sums, chill units, accumulated sunshine hours, monthly meteorological parameters and the start dates of earlier pollen seasons to identify significant associations. Few meteorological parameters were significantly correlated with the start dates of the three pollen seasons, the exceptions being significant negative correlations between the average monthly air temperature in the months immediately preceding theBetula andPlatanus pollen season. However, significant relationships were identified between the start dates of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons and the start of theCorylus, Taxus andPopulus pollen seasons with coefficients of determination as high as 98%. These indicator species were then used as predictors to forecast the start of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons, both individually and in combination with one another, providing levels of explanation of up to 99%.


Tree pollen seasons Start dates Meteorological variables Indicator species 


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Copyright information

© Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. 1998

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jane Norris-Hill
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of GeographyUniversity of Wales, Lampeter, CeredigionDyfedUK

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