Climatic Change

, Volume 3, Issue 2, pp 189–203 | Cite as

A survey of possible effects of long-lasting absence of solar activity on climate and some speculations on possible mechanisms

  • G. Y. Molnár
Article

Abstract

This paper deals with the prolonged lack (or existence) of solar activity, such as the Maunder or Spörer minima, since considerable climatic changes barely occur within a shorter time interval. For this aim, first the possible influences of the present-day 11-yr solar cycle are considered for higher atmospheric regions, and found scarcely to be responsible for inducing climatic changes. On the other hand, solar activity-generated changes of the solar parameter in the visible spectrum are estimated too. The results of these simple considerations indicate that the external manifestations of the solar cycle hardly can cause observable change in the tropospheric weather (and so the long-lasting solar quiets seem not climatically significant), and seem indirectly to support the possibility, that the Milankovitch mechanism plays an important role in forcing the ice-age oscillations at least during the Quaternary period. Besides it can be concluded, that greater (≥ 0.1%, measured from satellite platform) solar parameter variations cannot be in close connection with the known forms of solar activity, which suggest that the possible, significant secular solar luminosity changes could be generated deep inside the Sun and/or could not be closely related to the sunspot cycle.

Keywords

Climatic Change Solar Activity Solar Cycle Visible Spectrum Sunspot Cycle 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Birchfield, C. E.: 1977, ‘A Study of the Stability of a Model Continental Ice Sheet Subject to Periodic Variations, in Heat Input’.J. Geophys. Res. 82, 4909–4913.Google Scholar
  2. Bucha, V.: 1977, ‘Cases of Glaciations Climate and Weather Changes’ (Possible Mechanism of Solar-Terrestrial Processes). Project 73/1/24,Quaternary Glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere, J.Report No. 4, Prague, pp. 8–36.Google Scholar
  3. Callis, L. B., and Nealy, J. E.: 1978, Solar UV Variability and its Effect on Stratospheric Thermal Structure and Trace Constituents.Geophys. Res. Let. 5, 249–252.Google Scholar
  4. Callis, L. B., Natarajan, M., and Nealy, J. E.: 1979, Ozone and Temperature Trends Associated with the 11-yr Solar Cycle.Science 204, 1303–1306.Google Scholar
  5. Cook, E. R., and Jacoby, G. C.: 1979, ‘Evidence for Quasi-Periodic July Drought in the Hudson Valley’, New York.Nature 282, 390–392.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Dearborn, S. P., and Newman, M. J.: 1978, Efficiency of Convection and Time Variation of the Solar Constant.Science 201, 150.Google Scholar
  7. Delobeau, F.: 1976,The Environment of the Earth, D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, Holland, p. 9.Google Scholar
  8. Dessler, A. J.: 1975,In Possible Relationships between Solar Activity and Meteorological Phenomena. NASA-SP-366 NASA, Washington.Google Scholar
  9. Dicke, R. H.: 1978, Is there a Chronometer Hidden Deep in the Sun?Nature 276, 676.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Dicke, R. H.: 1979, Solar Luminosity and the Sunspot Cycle.Nature 280, 24–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Eddy, J. A.: 1976, ‘The Maunder Minimum’,Science 192, 1189.Google Scholar
  12. Eddy, J. A.: 1977, ‘The Case of the Missing Sunspots’,Scientific American 236, 80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Eddy, J. A., Noyes, R. W., Wolbach, J. G., and Boornazion, A.: 1978, ‘Secular Changes in Solar Rotation, 1888–1964’.Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 10, 400–401.Google Scholar
  14. Epstein, S., and Yapp, C. J.: 1976,Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 30, 252.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Gruza, G. V., and Rankova, E.: 1979,Data of Climate Structure and Variability: Sea Surface air Temperature; Northern Hemisphere, The U.S.S.R. State Com. for Hydromet. and Control of Nat. Env., Obninsk, U.S.S.R.Google Scholar
  16. Hays, J. D., Imbrie, J., and Shackleton, N. J.: 1976, ‘Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages’.Science 194, 1121.Google Scholar
  17. Heath, D.: 1973, ‘Space Observations of the Variability of Solar Irradiance in the Near and Far Ultraviolet’.J. Geophys. Res. 78, 2779–2792.Google Scholar
  18. Hibler, W. D., and Johnsen, S. J.: 1979, ‘The 20 yr Cycle in Greenland Ice Core Records’.Nature 280, 481–483.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hines, C. O., and Halevy, I.: 1977, ‘On the Reality and Nature of a Certain Sun-weather Correlation’.J. of Atm. Sci. 34, 382–404.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Howard, R.: 1978, ‘The Rotation of the Sun’.Rev. Geophys. Space Phys. 16, 721–732.Google Scholar
  21. Hoyt, D. V.: 1979a, ‘Variations in Sunspot Structure and Climate’.Climatic Change 2, 79–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Hoyt, D. V.: 1979b,Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, pp. 65–68.Google Scholar
  23. Hoyt, D. V.: 1979c, ‘An Empirical Determination of the Heating of the Earth by the Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect’.Nature 282, 388–390.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Izakov, N. M.: 1976, ‘Comparison of Structure and Dynamics of the Earth’s, Mars’ and Venus’ Thermosphere’.J. Atm. Terr. Phys. 38, 847–862.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Ladurie, E. LeR.: 1971,Times of Feast, Times of Famine; a History of Climate since the Year 1000. New York, Doubleday and Company, p. 426.Google Scholar
  26. Lamb, H. H.: 1979, ‘An Approach to the Study of the Development of Climate and its Impact on Human Affairs’. Paper presented at International Conference on Climate and History, Norwich, United Kingdom, July 8–14, 1979. Norwich, pp. 91–108.Google Scholar
  27. Larsen, M. F., and Kelley, C. M.: 1977, ‘A Study of an Observed and Forecasted Meteorological Index and its Relation to the Interplanetary Magnetic Field’.Geophys. Res. Lett. 4, 337–340.Google Scholar
  28. Livingston, C. W.: 1978, ‘Cooling of the Sun’s Photosphere Coincident with Increased Sunspot Activity’.Nature 272, 340–341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Livingstone, C. W., and Duvall, Jr. T. L.: 1979, ‘Solar Rotation, 1966–1978’.Solar Physics (submitted).Google Scholar
  30. Lowder, W. M., and Beck, H. L.: 1966, ‘Cosmic-Ray Ionization in the Lower Atmosphere’.J. Geophys. Res. 71, 4661–4668.Google Scholar
  31. Markson, R.: 1978, ‘Solar Modulation of Atmospheric Electrification and Possible Implications for the Sun-Weather Relationships’.Nature 273, 103–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Mass, C., and Schneider, S. H.: 1977, ‘Statistical Evidence on the Influence of Sunspots and Volcanic Dust on Long-Term Temperature Trends’.J. Atmos. Sci. 34, 1995–2004.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Milankovitch, M.: 1941, ‘Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Anwendung auf des Eiszeitproblem’,R. Serb. Acad., Belgrade p. 633. (Engl. transl., U.S. Dept. Commer., Clearinghouse Fed. Sci. Tech. Inf., Springfield, Virginia, 1969).Google Scholar
  34. Mitchell, J. M. Jr.: 1975, ‘Note on Solar Variability and Volcanic Activity as Potential Sources of Climatic Variability’.GARP Publ. Ser. no. 16, 127–131. WMO, Geneva, 1975.Google Scholar
  35. Mitchell, J. M. Jr.: 1976, ‘An Overview of Climatic Variability and its Causal Mechanisms’.Quaternary Res. 6, 481–493.Google Scholar
  36. Mitchell, J. M. Jr., Stockton, C., and Meko, D. M.: 1978, ‘Evidence of a 22 yr Rhythm of Drought in the Western United States Related to the Hale Solar Cycle Since the 17th Century’. Paper presented at Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate, Columbus, Ohio, July 24–28, 1978.Google Scholar
  37. Monin, A. S.: 1972,Weather Forecasting as a Problem in Physics. The MIT Press.Google Scholar
  38. Newton, A., and Nunn, P. H.: 1951, Reviewed by Howard (1978).Google Scholar
  39. Pittock, A. B.: 1978, ‘A Critical Look at Long-Term Sun-Weather Relationships’.Revs. Geophys. Space Physics 16, 400–421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Porter, S. C.: 1979, ‘Glaciological Evidence of Holocene Climatic Change’. Paper presented at International Conference on Climate and History, Norwich, United Kingdom, July 8–14, 1979. Norwich, pp. 148–179.Google Scholar
  41. Sakurai, K.: 1977, ‘Equatorial Solar Rotation and its Relation to Climate Changes’.Nature 269, 401–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Schneider, S. H., and Mass, C.: 1975, ‘Volcanic Dust, Sunspots, and Temperature Trends’.Science 190, 741–746.Google Scholar
  43. Schneider, S. H., Washington, M. W., and Chervin, M. R.: 1978, ‘Cloudiness as a Climatic Feedback Mechanism: Effects on Cloud Amounts of Prescribel Global and Regional Surface Temperature Changes in the NCAR GCM’.J. Atm. Sci. 35, 2207–2221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Schneider, S. H., and Thompson, S. L.: 1979, ‘Ice Ages and Orbital Variations: Some Simple Theory and Modeling’.Quaternary Res. 12, 188–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. Sergin, V. Ya.: 1979, ‘Numerical Modeling of the Glaciers-Ocean-Atmosphere Global System’.J. Geophys. Res. 84, 3191–3204.Google Scholar
  46. Shapiro, R., and Stolov, L. H.: 1978, ‘A Search for a Solar Influence on the Skill of Weather Forecasts’.J. Atm. Sci. 35, 2334–2345.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Sofia, S., O’Keefe, J., Lesh, J. R., and Endai, A. S.: 1979, ‘Solar Constant: Constraints on Possible Variations Derived from Solar Diameter Measurements’.Science 204, 1306–1308.Google Scholar
  48. Stuiver, M. and Quay, P. D.: 1980, ‘Changes in Atmospheric Carbon-14 Attributed to a Variable Sun’.Science 207, 11–19.Google Scholar
  49. Suarez, M. J., and Held, I. M.: 1976, ‘Modeling Climatic Response to Orbital Parameter Variations’.Nature 263, 46–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Suarez, M. J., and Held, I. M.: 1979, ‘The Sensitivity of an Energy Balance Climate Model to Variations in the Orbital Parameters’.J. Geophys. Res. 84, 4825–2836.Google Scholar
  51. Taylor, B. L., Gal-Chen, T., and Schneider, S. H.: 1980, ‘Volcanic Eruptions and Long-term Temperature Records: An Empirical Search for Cause and Effect’.Quart. J. R. Met. Soc. 106, 175–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Thomas, J. H.: 1979, ‘Variations of the Sun’s Radius and Temperature due to Magnetic Buoyancy’.Nature 280, 662–663.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Vonder Haar, T. H., Campbell, G. G., Arking, A. Coulson, K. Hickey, J., House, F., Ingersoll, A., Jacobowitz, H., Smith, W. L., and Steve, L.: 1980, ‘Measurements of the Earth Radiation Budget from Satellites During the First GARP Global Experiment’. Preprint of paper presented at the XXIIIrd COSPAR Plenary Meeting, Budapest, Hungary, 7 June 1980.Google Scholar
  54. Weertman, J.: 1976, ‘Milankovitch Solar Radiation Variations and Ice Age Sheet Sizes’.Nature 261, 17–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  55. Wilcox, J. M., Scherrer, H. P., Svalgaard, L., Roberts, W. O., Olson, R. H., and Jenne, R. L.: 1974, ‘Influence of Solar Magnetic Sector Structure on Terrestrial Atmospheric Vorticity’.J. Atm. Sci. 31, 581–588.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  56. Willett, C. J.: 1979, ‘Solar Modulation of the Supply Current for Atmospheric Electricity’.J. Geophys. Res. 84, 4999–5002.Google Scholar
  57. Williams, G. R.: 1979, Reply in ‘Matters Arising’,Nature 280, 846.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Willson, R. C., Duncan, C. H., and Geist, S.: 1980, ‘Direct Measurement of Solar Luminosity Variation’.Science 207, 177–179.Google Scholar
  59. Wöhl, H.: 1978, Gab es Änderungen der Solarkonstanten in historischer Zeit? (in German). Sterne und Weltraum, 25–27.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© D. Reidel Publishing Co. 1981

Authors and Affiliations

  • G. Y. Molnár
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute for Atmospheric PhysicsBudapestHungary

Personalised recommendations