Lognormal discovery process modeling characterizes oil and gas discovery as sampling from a lognormal parent distribution with probability proportional to size and without replacement. In this article, we present a sensitivity study that is based on simulated discovery sequences with different assumptions regarding discovery efficiency, exploration status, and the shape of the parent field size distribution. The results indicate that lognormal discovery process modeling provides good overall estimates of the lognormal parameters if the parent field size distribution is lognormal. If the parent field size distribution is Pareto, an underestimation of the play potential may occur if a lognormal discovery process model is applied. Failure of the likelihood value converging to a maximum is more frequent when sample size is small and/or discovery efficiency is low.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.
Buy single article
Instant access to the full article PDF.
Price includes VAT for USA
Subscribe to journal
Immediate online access to all issues from 2019. Subscription will auto renew annually.
This is the net price. Taxes to be calculated in checkout.
Chen, Zhuoheng, and Sinding-Larsen, R., 1990, The application of successive sampling models for hydrocarbon resource assessment in the North Sea: Presented at 1990 Canadian Society of Petroleum Geologist Convention, Calgary, Canada, May 27–30, 1990, Program and Abstracts, p. 37.
Cossey, Stephen P.J., and Jacobs, R.E., 1992. Oligocene Hackberg formation of southwest Louisiana-Sequence stratigraphy, sedimentology, and hydrocarbon potential: AAPG Bulletin, v. 76, no. 5, p. 589–606.
Coustau, H., Lee, P.J., Dupuy, J., and Junca, J., 1988, The Jurassic oil resource of the East Shetland, North Sea: Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, v. 36, no. 2 p. 177–185.
Dudewicz, E.J., and Mishra, S.N., 1988, Modern mathematical statistics: John Wiley and Sons, 259 p.
Grace, G.D., 1988, Advantages and limitations of Discovery process modeling—The case of the northern west Siberian gas play,in Chung, C.F., Fabbri, A.G., and Sinding-Larsen, R., eds., Quantitative analysis of mineral and energy resources: NATO ASI series, p. 651–668.
Kaufman, G.M., Balcer, Y., and Kruyt, D., 1975, A probabilistic model of oil and gas discovery,in Haun, J.D., ed., Methods of estimating undiscovered volume of oil and gas resources: AAPG Studies in Geology #1, p. 113–142.
Lee, P.J., 1993a, Two decades of Geological Survey of Canada petroleum resource assessments: Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, v. 30, p. 321–332.
Lee, P.J., 1993b, Lognormal and nonparametric discovery process models—Reliable tools in the petroleum resource assessment: AAPG Annual Convention, Program and Abstracts, p. 136.
Lee, P.J., 1993c, The Geological Survey of Canada lognormal discovery process model—Revisited: Silver Anniversary Meeting, Prague, Czech Republic, Oct. 10–15, 1993, Program and Abstracts, p. 31.
Lee, P.J., Snowdon, L.R., and Wang, P.C.C., 1990, Petroleum resource evaluation, short course notes, C.S.P.G. 1990 Convention: Calgary, Canada, 108 pp.
Lee, P.J., and Tzeng, H.P., 1989, The petroleum exploration and resource evaluation system, PETRIMES—Working reference guide: Institute of Sedimentary and Petroleum Geology, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, p.
Lee, P.J., and Wang, P.C.C., 1985, Prediction of oil or gas pool sizes when discovery record is available. Mathematical Geology, v. 17, no. 2, p. 95–113.
Masters, C.D., Robinson, K., Procter, R., and Taylor, G., 1986, Petroleum resource assessment, East Asia workshop notes: Kuala Lumpur, 79 p.
Podruski, J.A., Barclay, J.E., Hamblin, A.P., Lee, P.J., Osadetz, K.G., Procter, R.M., and Taylor, G.C., 1988, Conventional oil resources of western Canada: Geological Survey of Canada Paper 87-26, 149 p.
Sinding-Larsen, R., 1990, Regional resource assessment—The experience in the CCOP countries,in Bandlien, E.H., ed., Policy and management of petroleum resources: Proceedings of the United Nations Seminar on Policy and Management of Petroleum Resources, Oslo, Sept. 25–30, 1989, p. 63–70.
Sinding-Larsen, R., and Chen, Z., in press, Cross-validation of resource estimates from discovery process modelling and volumetric accumulation modelling at the play level: Example from the Haltenbanken areain Dorè, A.G., and Sinding-Larsen, R., eds., Norwegian Petroleum Society (NPF) Conference Volume, Quantification and prediction of hydrocarbon resources.
Taylor, G.C., Procter, R.M., and Menely, R.A., 1991, Petroleum resource appraisal system: Geological Survey of Canada Open File Report 2374, 65 p.
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, Z., Sinding-Larsen, R. Discovery process modeling—A sensitivity study. Nat Resour Res 3, 295–303 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02256888
- Lognormal discovery process model
- Discovery efficiency
- Exploration maturity
- Shape of parent population