A stochastic model for the ageing of scientific literature
A non-homogeneous birth process is used to describe the statistical properties of bibliometric citation processes. The model is analysed under special assumptions. Thelife-time distribution, special probabilities and mean value functions are used to characterize differences in the ageing structure of scientific literature, the change of citation impact in time and to analyse predictive aspects of reception processes. The results are applied to selected journals representing one field in science and social science each. The empirical part of the study is based on a 14-year citation history (papers published in 1978 and cited 1978–1991). An intimate, connection between impact and ageing cannot be observed. However, the ageing behaviour seems to be clearly influenced by field characteristics and by special document/journal types, such as letters and short communications.
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- 1.L. Egghe, I. K. Ravichandra Rao, Classification of growth models based on growth rates and its applications.Scientometrics, 25 (1992) 5–46.Google Scholar
- 2.H. S. Sichel, A bibliometric distribution which really works,Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 36 (1985) 314–321.Google Scholar
- 3.Q. L. Burrell, Predictive aspects of some bibliometric processes. In: L. Egghe & R. Rousseau (Eds.)Informetrics 87/88 Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam, 1988, p. 43–63.Google Scholar
- 4.Q. L. Burrell, Empirical predicition of library circulations based on negative binomial processes. In: L. Egghe & R. Rousseau (Eds),Informetrics 89/90, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam, 1990, p. 57–64.Google Scholar
- 5.W. Glänzel, A. Schubert, Predictive, aspects of a stochastic model for citation processes.Information Processing & Management, (in press).Google Scholar
- 6.W. Glänzel, U. Schoepflin, A bibliometric study on ageing and reception processes of scientific literature in the social sciences, submitted toJournal of Information Science.Google Scholar
- 7.W. Glänzel, U. Schoepflin, A bibliometric study on ageing and reception processes of scientific literature. In: A. F. J. van Raan et al. (Eds),Science and Technology in a Policy Context, DSWO Press, Leiden, 1992, p. 121–137.Google Scholar