Journal of Mathematical Biology

, Volume 34, Issue 8, pp 878–888 | Cite as

A model for predicting the transmission rate of malaria from serological data

  • M. Gatton
  • W. Hogarth
  • A. Saul
  • P. Dayananda


A model is developed to estimate the duration for which malaria antibody levels in the blood remain high in a closed population. This estimate can be used to calculate the transmission rate within a region, in conjunction with the serological information contained in the population. The model is used on data obtained from a study of malaria in the Philippines and shows excellent agreement. It is subsequently utilised for predictions and seems to be an appropriate vehicle for this purpose.

Key words

Malaria Transmission Serological Model Antibodies 


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Copyright information

© Springer-VerIag 1996

Authors and Affiliations

  • M. Gatton
    • 1
    • 3
  • W. Hogarth
    • 1
  • A. Saul
    • 2
  • P. Dayananda
    • 1
  1. 1.Faculty of Environmental SciencesGriffith UniversityNathanAustralia
  2. 2.Tropical Health ProgramQueensland Institute of Medical ResearchBrisbaneAustralia
  3. 3.Currently affiliated with Queensland Health Care Research Group, Centre in Statistical Science and Industrial MathematicsQueensland University of TechnologyAustralia

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