Empirical Economics

, Volume 4, Issue 2, pp 111–134

Modeling equilibrium trends and interventions in commodity markets

  • R. E. Stauffer
  • K. A. Mingst
Article

Abstract

The monthly spot prices in the international tin and copper and U.S. domestic lead markets are modeled based on the “supply of storage” concept. In all cases the lag-1 natural logS/C (stocks/consumption) was highly important in the final fitted equation. For copper and lead, trend directions in the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators modified theS/C dependency. Disaggregation of the tin stocks showed the special model sensitivity to the level of the ITC buffer stock. The underlying econometric models are used to estimate the price intervention effects of international political-economic crises, and commodity producer cartel actions.

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Copyright information

© Physica-Verlag Rudolf Liebing KG 1979

Authors and Affiliations

  • R. E. Stauffer
    • 1
  • K. A. Mingst
    • 2
  1. 1.Water Chemistry LaboratoryUniversity of WisconsinMadisonUSA
  2. 2.Department of Political ScienceUniversity of KentuckyLexingtonUSA

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