European Journal of Epidemiology

, Volume 10, Issue 4, pp 471–474

A mathematical model for the European spread of influenza

  • Antoine Flahault
  • Séverine Deguen
  • Alain-Jacques Valleron
Second Session: Epidemiological And Clinical Problems During Pandemics

Abstract

Following a study modelling the geographical spread of influenza in France, on the basis of population movements through the use of railroad data, we applied the same methodology on a European scale. We simulated an epidemic within a network of 9 European cities (Amsterdam, Berlin, Budapest, Copenhagen, London, Madrid, Milano, Paris, Stockholm), only taking into account regular between-cities air transport. Transportation data were obtained from the International Civil Aviation Organization (1991). The theoretical results show that the time lag for action is probably short (less than one month) after the first detection of an epidemic focus.

Key words

Epidemic forecasting Influenza virus Passenger air traffic 

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References

  1. 1.
    Rvachev LA, Longini IM. A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza. Math Biosci 1985; 75: 1–22.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Flahault A, Letrait S, Blin P, Hazout S, Ménar ès J, Valleron AJ. Modelling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France. Stats Medic 1988; 7: 1147–1155.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1994

Authors and Affiliations

  • Antoine Flahault
    • 1
  • Séverine Deguen
    • 1
  • Alain-Jacques Valleron
    • 1
  1. 1.B3E, Faculté de Médecine Saint-AntoineParis, Cedex 12France

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