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Den Hartog and Tjan's vintage model as a tool for the determination of structural unemployment: Some critical remarks

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Summary

The use of the vintage model with fixed coefficients as devised by den Hartog and Tjan for determining the causes of structural unemployment, is scrutinized; one should realize that this model had a great impact on the analysis of the unemployment situation by the Dutch government. On methodological grounds a sensitivity analysis of the model is performed and it is argued that the margins of uncertainty adhering to the results of this model are so large as to make the model in its current form a very questionable basis for an effective policy.

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The authors are indebted to Professors F. J. de Jong and Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert for valuable comments.

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Muysken, J., van Ardenne, C.H. Den Hartog and Tjan's vintage model as a tool for the determination of structural unemployment: Some critical remarks. De Economist 124, 83–102 (1976). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01675909

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Keywords

  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • International Economic
  • Public Finance
  • Current Form
  • Questionable Basis