Climatic Change

, Volume 25, Issue 2, pp 179–184 | Cite as

Breaking global temperature records after Mt. Pinatubo

  • Gilbert W. BassettJr.
  • Zhiyong Lin


The probability of setting global temperature records is reconsidered in light of cooling due to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The cooling ‘resets’ temperature by moving it away from the top of its 100-year range. Depending on the statistical model for temperature, this ‘reset’ can lead to a much lower probability for a record in the next few years. The exercise illustrates how record setting depends on the underlying model, the current record value, and - if there is serial correlation- the current temperature.


Statistical Model Lower Probability Serial Correlation Global Temperature Temperature Record 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1993

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gilbert W. BassettJr.
    • 1
  • Zhiyong Lin
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Economics (m/c144)University of Illinois at ChicagoChicagoUSA

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