Migration and marriage in the life course: a method for studying synchronized events

  • Clara H. Mulder
  • Michael Wagner
Article

Abstract

One of the main methodological problems in explaining migration from a life course perspective is the adequate modelling of synchronized events. On the basis of a West German sample of residence histories that is representative of three birth cohorts, of which the one born in 1939-41 is analysed, log-linear techniques were applied to separate the effects of being married, and of getting married, on migration rates. Results show that the dependence of short and long distance moves on age substantially diminish if marriage is considered as a synchronization variable. Moreover, the common finding that married persons move less than the unmarried is reversed at short distances if marriage is taken into account as an event which influences the probability of another (event dependence).

Histoires de vie migratoire et matrimoniale: une méthode pour étudier des événements synchronisés

Résumé

La modélisation adéquate d'événements synchonisés est l'un des principaux problèmes méthodologiques qui se posent, lorsque l'on étudie la migration dans une perspective biographique. Nous travaillons sur les histoires résidentielles d'un échantillon d'Allemands de l'Ouest, représentatif de trois cohorts de naissances: nous analysons ici celle que est née en 1939–41. L'utilisation d'une modelisation log-linéaire du quotient de migration permet de distinguer les deux types d'effets: l'individu est déjà marié lors de la migration; les deux événements sont synchrones. Les resultats montrent que la dépendance des migrations de courte et de longue distance en fonction de l'age diminue de façon importante lorsque le mariage est considéré comme une variable synchrone. Bienplus, le résultat habituel selon le quel les personnes mariées migrent moins que les non mariées est inversé pour les déplacements de courte distance, lorsque le mariage est considéré comme un événement qui influe sur la probablité d'arrivée de l'autre (dépendance unilaterale).

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Allison, P.D., 1982. Discrete-time methods for the analysis of event histories. In: Samuel Leinhardt, ed. Sociological Methodology 1982. Jossey-Bass, San Francisco: 61–98.Google Scholar
  2. Auriat, N., 1991. Who forgets? An analysis of memory effects in a retrospective survey on migration history. European Journal of Population, 7: 311–342.Google Scholar
  3. Bastide, H. and Girard, A., 1974. Mobilité de la population et motivation des personnes: une enquête auprès du public. II, Les motifs de la mobilité. Population, 3: 579–607.Google Scholar
  4. Birg, H. and Flöthmann, E.-J., 1990. Regionsspezifische Wechselwirkungen zwischen Migration und Fertilität im Lebenslauf. Acta Demographica, Band 1: 1–26.Google Scholar
  5. Blossfeld, H.-P., 1987. Zur Repräsentativität der Sfb-3-Lebensverlaufsstudie. Ein Vergleich mit Daten aus der amtlichen Statistik. Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, 71: 126–144.Google Scholar
  6. Bonvalet, C. and Lelièvre, E., 1989. Mobilité en France et à Paris depuis 1945: bilan résidentiel d'une génération. Population, 44, no. 3: 531–560.Google Scholar
  7. Carroll, G.R. and Mayer, K.U., 1986. Job-shift patterns in the Federal Republic of Germany: the effects of social class, industrial sector, and organizational size. American Sociological Review, 51: 323–341.Google Scholar
  8. Clark, W.A.V. and Onaka, J.L., 1983. Life cycle and housing adjustment as explanations of residential mobility. Urban Studies, 20: 47–57.Google Scholar
  9. Courgeau, D., 1976. Mobilité géographique, nuptialité et fécondité. Population, 31, no. 4–5: 901–915.Google Scholar
  10. Courgeau, D., 1985a. Interaction between spatial mobility, family and career life-cycle: a French survey. European Sociological Review, 1, no. 2: 139–162.Google Scholar
  11. Courgeau, D., 1985b. Changements de logement, changements de département et cycle de vie. L'Espace Géographique, no. 4: 289–306.Google Scholar
  12. Courgeau, D., 1989. Family formation and urbanization. Population, English Selection, 44, no. 1: 123–146.Google Scholar
  13. Courgeau, D. and Lelièvre, E., 1986. Nuptialité et agriculture. Population, 2: 303–326.Google Scholar
  14. Courgeau, D. and Lelièvre, E., 1988. Estimation of transition rates in dynamic household models. In: N. Keilman, A. Kuijsten, and A. Vossen, eds. Modelling Household Formation and Dissolution. Clarendon Press, Oxford: 160–176.Google Scholar
  15. Courgeau, D. and Lelièvre, E., 1989. Analyse démographique des biographies. INED, Paris.Google Scholar
  16. Grundy, E.M.D. and Fox, A.J., 1985. Migration during early married life. European Journal of Population, 1: 237–263.Google Scholar
  17. Harts, J.J. and Hingstman, L., 1986. Verhuizingen op een rij; een analyse van individuele verhuisgeschiedenissen (Moves lined up. Analysis of individual move histories). Amsterdam/Utrecht: KNAG/Geografisch Instituut RU (Nederlandse Geografische Studies 13).Google Scholar
  18. Huinink, J., 1988. Die demographische Analyse der Geburtenentwicklung mit Lebensverlaufsdaten. Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, 72: 359–377.Google Scholar
  19. Huinink, J. and Wagner, M., 1989. Regionale Lebensbedingungen, Migration und Familienbildung. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, 41(4): 669–689.Google Scholar
  20. Klijzing, E., 1992a. Migrations in individual family life and urban change in the Netherlands: an attempt at multi-level analysis. In: Strohmeier, K.P. and Matthiessen, Ch.W., eds. Innovation and Urban Population Dynamics. Avebury, Aldershot: 227–250.Google Scholar
  21. Klijzing, F.K.H., 1992b. A method for the simultaneous estimation of parallel processes in the human life course. Studia Demograficzne, 3, 105: 111–124.Google Scholar
  22. Klijzing, E., Siegers, J., Keilman, N., and Groot, L., 1988. Static versus dynamic analysis of the interaction between female labour-force participation and fertility. European Journal of Population, 4: 97–116.Google Scholar
  23. Larson, M.G., 1984. Covariate analysis of competing-risks data with log-linear models. Biometrics, 40: 459–469.Google Scholar
  24. Mayer, K.U. and Brückner, E., 1989, eds. Lebensverläufe und Wohlfahrtsentwicklung. Konzeption, Design und Methodik der Erhebung von Lebensverläufen der Geburtsjahrgänge 1929–31, 1939–41, 1949–51 (Materialien aus der Bildungsforschung Nr. 35). Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Berlin.Google Scholar
  25. Mulder, C.H., 1991. Age-Period-Cohort Models of Short and Long Distance Migration in The Netherlands. Paper prepared for the Symposium on Dynamics of Cohort and Generations Research, held in Utrecht, The Netherlands, on December 12–14, 1991 (PDOD-paper no. 6). Postdoctorale Onderzoekersopleiding Demografie, University of Amsterdam.Google Scholar
  26. Mulder, C.H., 1992. Internal Migration of Dutch Birth Cohorts: Theoretical Backgrounds and Research Activities (PDOD-paper no. 10). Postdoctorale Onderzoekersopleiding Demografie, University of Amsterdam.Google Scholar
  27. Mulder, C.H. and Wagner, M., 1992. Migration and marriage: a Study of Synchronized Events in the Life Course. Paper presented at the EAPS/BIB Seminar “Demographic Implications of Marital Status”, Bonn, 27–31 October 1992.Google Scholar
  28. Papastefanou, G., 1987. Gender differences in family formation: modelling the life course specificity of social differentiation (text in German). In: Mayer, K.U. and Tuma, N.B., eds. Applications of Event History Analysis in Life Course Research (Materialien aus der Bildungsforschung Nr. 30). Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung, Berlin: 327–403.Google Scholar
  29. Papastefanou, G., 1990. Familiengründung und Lebensverlauf. Eine empirische Analyse sozialstruktureller Bedingungen der Familiengründung bei den Kohorten 1929–31, 1939–41 und 1949–51. Max-Planck-Institut für Bildungsforschung (Studien und Berichte 50), Berlin.Google Scholar
  30. Sandefur, G.D. and Scott, W.J., 1981. A dynamic analysis of migration: an assessment of the effects of age, family and career variables. Demography, 18, no. 3: 355–368.Google Scholar
  31. Speare, A. Jr. and Goldscheider, F.K., 1987. Effects of marital status change on residential mobility. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 49: 455–464.Google Scholar
  32. Wagner, M., 1989. Räumliche Mobilität im Lebensverlauf. Eine empirische Untersuchung sozialer Bedingungen der Migration. Enke, Stuttgart.Google Scholar
  33. Wagner, M., 1991. Problems of Measurement and Comparability in Migration Survey Research. Quetelet Seminar “The Collection and Comparability of Demographic and Social Data in Europe”, September, 17–20, 1991, Gembloux (Belgium).Google Scholar
  34. Wagner, M. and Huinink, J., 1991. Neuere Trends beim Auszug aus dem Elternhaus. Acta Demographica 1991: 39–62.Google Scholar
  35. Willekens, F., 1987. Migration and development: a micro-perspective. Journal of Institute of Economic Research, 22, 2. Also published as NIDI-Working paper no. 62 (Voorburg, 1985).Google Scholar
  36. Willekens, F., 1991. Understanding the interdependence between parallel careers. In: Siegers, J.J., de Jong-Gierveld, J. and van Imhoff, E., eds. Female Labour Market Behaviour and Fertility: A Rational-Choice Approach. Springer, Berlin: 2–31.Google Scholar
  37. Yamaguchi, K., 1991. Event History Analysis. Sage, Newbury Park (Applied Social Research Methods Series 28).Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1993

Authors and Affiliations

  • Clara H. Mulder
    • 2
  • Michael Wagner
    • 1
  1. 1.Max Planck Institute for Human Development and EducationBerlinGermany
  2. 2.Department of Planning and DemographyUniversity of AmsterdamAmsterdamNetherlands

Personalised recommendations