Abstract
In this study, a model is developed to predict future warming for metropolitan areas in the United Sates to the year 2035. According to model results, most U.S. cities of 200,000 population or more can expect significant local warming. The average predicted warming for 104 cities analyzed is .34 degrees Farenheit. The greatest warming can be expected in “sunbelt” cities experiencing rapid population growth. Such localized warming is in addition to any heating which might occur from an enhanced greenhouse effect. Most cities can expect changes in energy demand, human health, and water supply.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bureau of Economic Analysis. (1985).1985 OBERS BEA Regional Projections. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Cayan, D.R., & Douglas, A.V. (1984). Urban influences on surface temperatures in the southwestern United States during recent decades.Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23 1520–1530.
Chameides, W.L., Lindway, R.W., Richardson, J., & Kiang, C.S. (1988). The role of biogenic hydrocarbons in urban photochemical smog: Atlanta as a case study.Science, 241 1473–1475.
Griffiths, J.F., & Driscoll, D.M. (1982).Survey of Climatology. Columbus, OH: Charles E. Merrill.
Hsu, S. I. (1984). Variation of an urban heat island in Phoenix.The Professional Geographer, 36 196–200.
Kalkstein, L.S., & Davis, R.E. (1989). Weather and human mortality: An evaluation of demographic and interregional responses in the United States.Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 79 44–64.
Karl, T. R., Diaz, H. F., & Kukla, G. (1988). Urbanization: Its detection and effect in the United States climate record.Journal of Climate, 1 1099–1123.
Kukla, G., Gavin, J., & Karl, T.R. (1986). Urban Warming.Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 24 1265–1270.
Landsberg, H.E. (1981).The Urban Climate. New York: Academic Press.
Lyman, F. (1990).The Greenhouse Trap. Boston: Beacon Press.
McKay, G.A., & Allsop, T. (1980). The role of climate in affecting energy supply/demand. In W. Bach, J. Pankrath, & J. Williams (Eds.).Interactions of Energy and Climate. Dordrecht: Reidel Press, 53–72.
Nasrallah, H. A., Brazel, A.J., & Balling, R.C. (1990). Analysis of the Kuwait City urban heat island.International Journal of Climatology, 10 401–405.
Neter, J., & Wasserman, W. (1974).Applied Linear Statistical Models. Homewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin.
Norwine, J. (1972). Influences of urban and other controls of temperature and related climatic criteria in cities of the southeastern United States, 1965–1969.Bulletin of the Illinois Geographical Society, 14 35–44.
Norwine, J. (1973). Heat island properties of an enclosed multi-level suburban shopping center.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 54 637–641.
Norwine, J. (1975). Urban climates and human ecology.Journal of Geography, 74 7–14.
Norwine, J. (1976). City size and the urban heat island: Observed effects at small cities in a subtropical environment.The Texas Journal of Science, 27 383–396.
Oke, T.R. (1973). City size and the urban heat island.Atmospheric Environment, 7 769–779.
Oke, T.R. (1979).Review of Urban Climatology 1973–1976. WMO Technical Note No. 169. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization.
Oke, T.R. (1987).Boundary Layer Climates. London: Methuen.
Quinlan, F.T., Karl, T.R., & Williams, C.N. Jr. (1987).United States Historical Climatology Network Serial Temperature and Precipitation Data. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
Schneider, S.H. (1989).Global Warming. San Francisco: Sierra Club Books.
U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1986).State and Metropolitan Area Data Book. Washington, D.C: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Viterito, A. (1989a). Implications of urbanization for local and regional temperatures in the United States. In J.C. Topping (Ed.).Coping with Climate Change. Washington, D.C: Climate Institute, 115–119.
Viterito, A. (1989b). Changing thermal topography of the Baltimore-Washington corridor: 1950–1979.Climatic Change, 14 89–102.
Wood, F.B. (1990). Monitoring global climate change: The case of greenhouse warming.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 71 45–52.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Additional information
The author wishes to thank Stuart Simpson of the George Washington University's Center for Administrative and Academic Computing for his generous support and cooperation.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Viterito, A. Future warming for U.S. cities. Popul Environ 13, 101–111 (1991). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01255512
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01255512