Empirical Economics

, Volume 18, Issue 3, pp 417–429 | Cite as

Exchange rate dynamics and currency unification: The Ostmark-DM rate

  • Michael Burda
  • Stefan Gerlach


This paper estimates a simple model of the exchange rate between the East and West German Mark immediately preceding German monetary union. Although there is a theoretical literature on exchange rate dynamics when the introduction of a fixed exchange rate is anticipated, the absence of data has limited empirical work on the subject. We show that in the first part of the sample, the DM-Ostmark exchange rate behaves as a random walk. In the second half, when monetary union appeared more likely, the exchange rate behaves as a weighted average of fundamentals and the expected “terminal” exchange rate.

JEL Classification System-Numbers

F31 F33 F42 


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Copyright information

© Physica-Verlag 1993

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michael Burda
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  • Stefan Gerlach
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
  1. 1.INSEADFontainebleau CedexFrance
  2. 2.the Centre for Economic Policy ResearchLondonUK
  3. 3.Brandeis UniversityWalthamUSA

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