Do bettors prefer long shots because they are risk-lovers, or are they just overconfident?
- Cite this article as:
- Golec, J. & Tamarkin, M. J Risk Uncertainty (1995) 11: 51. doi:10.1007/BF01132730
This study examines whether bettors' risk preferences or overconfidence in choosing winners better explains their well documented preference for low-probability wagers. Although previous studies using racetrack data often suggest that risk-loving behavior explains long-shot preference, such data cannot distinguish between the alternative explanations. We use football betting data to make the comparison and find that overconfidence more closely fits the data. This result complements evidence of overconfidence from behavioral studies as well as stock-market models of overconfident noise traders.