, Volume 21, Issue 4, pp 371–392 | Cite as

Temporal stability of travelers' activity choice and home-stay duration: Some empirical evidence

  • Fred Mannering
  • Elaine Murakami
  • Soon-Gwan Kim


This paper explores the temporal stability of activity type-choice models and models of travelers' home-stay duration. To empirically evaluate this stability, a nested logit model of activity-type choice and a proportional hazards model of home-stay duration are estimated using data from two-day travel diaries collected in the fall of 1989 and again, from the same individuals, in the fall of 1990. The results show that the models are not temporally stable over the one year time period separating the two travel-diary samples. A number of possible reasons for this instability are discussed.

Key words

activity models temporal stability 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Adler T & Ben Akiva M (1979) A theoretical and empirical model of trip chaining behavior.Transportation Research 13B: 243–257.Google Scholar
  2. Ben Akiva M & Lerman S (1985)Discrete Choice Analysis. MIT Press.Google Scholar
  3. Bhat C & Koppelman F (1993) A conceptual framework of individual activity program generation, forthcoming inTransportation Research.Google Scholar
  4. Chamberlain G (1990) Analysis of covariance with qualitative data.Review of Economic Studies 47: 225–238Google Scholar
  5. Damm D & Lerman S (1981) A theory of activity scheduling behavior.Environment and Planning A 13: 703–718.Google Scholar
  6. Fleming T & Harrington D (1990)Counting processes and survival analysis. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
  7. Goulias K, Pendyala R & Kitamura R (1990) Practical method for the estimation of trip generation and trip chaining.Transportation Research Record 1285: 47–56.Google Scholar
  8. Hanson S & Huff J (1988) Systematic variability in repetitious travel.Transportation 15: 111–135.Google Scholar
  9. Hamed M & Mannering F (1993) Modeling travelers' post-work activity involvement: toward a new methodology.Transportation Science 27: 381–394.Google Scholar
  10. Huff J & Hanson S (1990) Measurement of habitual behavior: examining systematic variability in repetitive travel. In: Jones (ed.)Developments in Dynamic and Activity-Based Approaches to Travel Analysis (pp. 34–55), Gower, England.Google Scholar
  11. Jones P, Koppelman F & Orfeuil J (1990) Activity analysis: state of the art and future directions. In: Jones (ed.)Developments in Dynamic and Activity-Based Approaches to Travel Analysis (pp. 34–55), Gower, England.Google Scholar
  12. Kalbfleisch J & Prentice R (1980)The Statistical Analysis of Failure Time Data. John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
  13. Kim S-G, Hamed M & Mannering F (1993) A note on modeling travelers' homestay duration and the efficiency of proportional hazards models. Working paper, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Washington.Google Scholar
  14. Kim S-G & Mannering F (1992) Panel data and activity duration models: econometric alternatives and applications, presented at the First U.S. Conference on Panels for Transportation Planning, Lake Arrowhead, CA.Google Scholar
  15. Kitamura R (1988) An evaluation of activity-based travel analysis.Transportation 15: 9–34.Google Scholar
  16. Kitamura R & Bunch D (1990) Heterogeneity and state dependence in household car ownership: a panel analysis using ordered-response probit models with error components.Transportation and Traffic Theory. Yokohama, Japan.Google Scholar
  17. Kitamura R & Kermanshah M (1983) Identifying time and history dependencies of activity choice.Transportation Research Record 944: 22–30.Google Scholar
  18. Kitamura R & Kermanshah M (1984) A sequential model of interdependent activity and destination choice.Transportation Research Record 987: 81–89.Google Scholar
  19. Kitamura R & van der Hoorn T (1987) Regularity and irreversibility of weekly travel behavior.Transportation 14: 227–251.Google Scholar
  20. Kostyniuk L & Kitamura R (1984) Trip chains and activity sequences: Test of temporal stability.Transportation Research Record 987: 81–89.Google Scholar
  21. McFadden D (1981) Econometric models of probabilistic choice. In: Manski & McFadden (eds.)Structural analysis of discrete data with econometric applications, MIT press.Google Scholar
  22. Mannering F & Winston C (1985) A dynamic empirical analysis of household vehicle ownership and utilization.Rand Journal of Economics 16: 215–236.Google Scholar
  23. Mannering F & Winston C (1991) Brand Loyalty and the Decline of American Automobile Firms.Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Microeconomics, 67–115.Google Scholar
  24. Murakami E & Watterson W (1990) Developing a household travel panel survey for the Puget Sound region.Transportation Research Record 1285: 40–46.Google Scholar
  25. Pas E (1983) A flexible and integrated methodology for analytical classification of daily travelactivity behavior.Transportation Science 17: 405–429.Google Scholar
  26. Pas E & Koppelman F (1986) An examination of the determinations of day-to-day variability in individuals' urban travel behavior.Transportation 14: 3–20.Google Scholar
  27. Pollak R (1970) Habit formation and dynamic demand functions.Journal of Political Economy 78.Google Scholar
  28. Pollak R (1976) Habit formation and long-run utility functions.Journal of Economic Theory 13.Google Scholar
  29. Recker W, McNally M & Root G (1986) A complex model of travel behavior.Transportation Research 20A: 307–330.Google Scholar
  30. Strotz R (1956) Myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization.Review of Economic Studies 23.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1994

Authors and Affiliations

  • Fred Mannering
    • 1
  • Elaine Murakami
    • 2
  • Soon-Gwan Kim
    • 3
  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of WashingtonSeattleUSA
  2. 2.Federal Highway AdministrationWashington, DC
  3. 3.Department of Civil EngineeringUniversity of WashingtonSeattleUSA

Personalised recommendations